Analysis Of Pipeline Risk In Chemical Industry Park Under Flood Disaster

In recent years,extreme floods have occurred frequently.Flood disasters are fierce,destructive and involve a wide range.As a kind of HILP(high-impact and low-probability)event,once the chemical accidents which is caused by flood disaster is happened,the consequence of accident would be far greater than the traditional chemical accident.This thesis combined the characteristics of flood hazards and chemical accident risks and selected chemical pipelines as research objects for risk analysis.The main contents are as follows:(1)Statistical Analysis of Chemical Accidents in Flood Disasters.The chemical accident situation caused by the flood disaster is complex and has serious consequences.In addition to causing fire,explosion and poisoning accidents,it may also cause environmental pollution.According to the flood depth and water velocity,the flood disasters were classified,and the main failure modes of the pipelines caused by different types of flood disasters were summarized.It was determined that the pipeline flange bolted joints were dangerous areas where the pipelines may failed due to flooding.(2)Combining with the force of the pipeline under the impact of flood,a failure model of the flange joint of the pipeline under flooding was established to calculate the critical speed of the flood when the pipeline with different outer diameters failed.Based on the pipeline failure model,the relationship between the flood velocity v and the critical length L of the pipeline was analyzed.(3)Pipeline reliability analysis and parameter sensitivity analysis under flooding.Based on the failure model of the pipeline under flooding,the limit state equation was constructed.The computer program was compiled by MATLAB software and the random variables of the structural function function were randomly sampled by the Monta Carlo method.The numerical calculation of the limit state equation was performed,and the sensitivity analysis of the random variable in the structural function function was performed to determine the parameter that has a greater influence on the reliability.(4)Based on the theoretical analysis of flood disaster risk and the method of chemical accident risk analysis,a risk analysis model based on "Flood hazard risk analysis-Pipeline accident risk analysis under flood disaster-Risk level decision" was established.The risk analysis of flanged pipeline under flood disaster was carried out.(5)Application of pipeline risk analysis model under flood disaster.Based on the risk analysis model constructed above,a hydrogen pipeline in a chemical park in Gaolan Port ofZhuhai was selected for risk analysis.Assuming that the area where the pipeline was located suffers from the flood disaster once every 50 years,the risk analysis was carried out for the possible accident of the pipeline in the flood disaster environment.