Study On The Security And Adaptability Of Regional Water Security Systems Based On The SCM And CCEM Model

With continuous socioeconomic development,human activities threaten natural resources in many areas.Therefore,studies of changes in security levels and the adaptation processes of water security systems in the context of water resources,socioeconomic factors and the environment are important for preventing safety issues in water security systems and enhancing the ability of systems to adapt to the changing environment.Based on the uncertain relationships among indicators,quantitative analyses of qualitative indices and the complex adaptive features of the interactions between indicators associated with the process of water security systems development,this paper introduces a cloud model and co-evolution model.Specifically,a similarity cloud model(SCM)is implemented to assess the water security level,and a comprehensive co-evolution model(CCEM)is implemented to study trends in the ability of water security systems to adapt to changing environmental conditions.In the SCM,water security is the target layer,and water resource security,socioeconomic security,eco-environmental security,management and food security are the criterion layers.In this approach,the indicators are classified based on the criterion layers;thus,the index system for water security evaluation can be obtained.Normal cloud and reverse cloud generators were used to generate the cloud-based “standard measure” of the water security assessment level and the evaluation clouds of regional water security.Based on the similarity between the cloud standard measures and the evaluation clouds,the relative maximum matching degree of the confidence interval was used to determine the security of the evaluation clouds.In the CCEM,the adaptability of a water security system is considered the research domain,and the adaptability metric is divided into water resource system adaptability,socioeconomic system adaptability,and eco-environmental system adaptability;therefore,the evaluation index system of the adaptability of water security systems can be obtained.The comprehensive fitness degree,which is determined by the absolute fitness and relative fitness of each element,and the coordination index of each subproblem domain can be used to obtain the adaptability trend of a water security system.To fully demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of the two proposed models,on the one hand,this paper selects Jiansanjiang and Yinchuan as case study areas with different water security conditions.The results show that the Jiansanjiang water security system remained in a safe state from 2006-2015,but the water security system in the arid area of Yinchuan City entered a dangerous state from 2006-2007 due to climate factors and natural resource scarcity and degradation.These results are consistent with the actual situations in the study areas.On the other hand,Jiansanjiang is used as a case study to empirically analyze the comprehensive co-evolution model.The results showed that from 2006-2015,the annual comprehensive fitness values and annual coordination index values of each subproblem domain(the adaptability of the water resource system,socioeconomic system and eco-environmental system)of the water security system were 0.841,0.366,and 0.662 and 0.568,0.244,and 0.345,respectively.These results suggest that the water resource system exhibited strong adaptability and contributed greatly to improving the adaptability of the water security system;the socioeconomic system exhibited poor adaptability to environmental changes and contributed little to the adaptability of the water security system;and the eco-environmental system was barely able to adapt to the changing environment and contributed little to the adaptability of the water security system.Due to the low adaptability of the socioeconomic and eco-environmental systems,the annual comprehensive fitness value of the problem domain was 0.563,which indicates that the adaptability of the water security system was relatively weak.Therefore,strengthening the sustainable utilization of water resources,promoting coordinated socioeconomic development,and improving the quality of the environment are effective strategies for improving the adaptability of water security systems.