Research On The Impacts Of Climate Change On Floating Population's City-choice Decision And Willingness-to-stay

With the rapid growth of China's economy and the acceleration of urbanization process,coupled with the rapid construction of transportation infrastructure between cities,the mobility of labor force has been greatly improved.Migrant population's choice of cities and their long-term residence intention in these cities will affect the future development path of each city.At the same time,these floating population will also experience the process of adaptation and integration in the new city,so this is a systematic social process of population mobility and integration of residence.The household registration and the social welfare policy bound with it have been playing an important role in the process of social development in China,making it difficult for the floating population to obtain urban public services to the same extent as the local residents.This paper conducts a quantitative study on the urban choice and living willingness of the floating population from the urban level,and its main conclusions are of great significance to the rational layout of urban public services and the improvement of social management policies.In the past,there have been many studies on population mobility models,mechanisms and policies.Based on this,this paper will focus on the impact of climate change on the urban choice of migrants.This point of view is a cross-disciplinary study,and at present scholars have little quantitative research on this point of view.The quantitative research of this paper is divided into two parts.In the first part,we study the impact of climate change on the migration of migrant population,discuss the relationship between temperature change and migration behavior of migrant population,combine urban statistical yearbook and census data with satellite climate data,establish regression model,and carry out regression analysis on the total migrant population,migrant population and migrant population according to household registration policy classification.It is found that there are commonalities among different groups,and there are peaks in the relationship between temperature change and floating population.At the same time,there are differences among individual groups,which are consistent with social phenomena.In the second part,using the dynamic monitoring survey data of the National Health and Family Planning Commission in 2014 and the climate data of Meteomanz.com,this paper analyzed the impact of climate on the long-term living willingness of migrants.Through statistical analysis and logit model regression,the empirical results show that the relationship between annual average temperature and summer average temperature and long-term residential desire of migrants is inverted U-shaped;the increase of winter average temperature will enhance the long-term residential desire of migrants;the appropriate rainfall and stable climate have a positive effect on improving the long-term residential desire of residents;in addition,there is also a systematic relat ionship among individual groups.The empirical results of this paper have important policy significance.On the one hand,due to the inability to bear the cost of migration,low-income migrants are less sensitive to climate attributes.On the other hand,studies have shown that bad weather,such as extreme heat,can lead to low productivity,which means that the labor force that has to work in extreme climate is often low productivity,leading to a vicious circle.Statistics in this paper show that the annual average temperature of about 70% of Chinese cities is higher than the most suitable immigrant temperature level.Therefore,policies aimed at mitigating climate warming can improve productivity and welfare in backward areas through this channel.Therefore,the government should pay more attention to helping the less developed areas improve their ability to adapt to extreme climate.