Construction And Empirical Study Of China's Regional Financial Risk Index

The steady operation of regional finance lays a solid foundation for the healthy development of regional economy.Once the regional financial risks accumulate to a certain extent,they will form systematic financial risks and even financial crises,thus damaging the national economy and affecting social stability.The Central Economic Work Conference has also stressed many times that "hold the bottom line against systemic financial risks".Based on the realistic background,this paper constructs a comprehensive measurement system for regional financial risks,and then analyzes the regional financial risks,which is of great practical significance for maintaining the stable operation of finance and effectively preventing and resolving financial risks.Through combing relevant regional financial risk theories,this paper analyzes and summarizes the sources,identification and transmission paths of regional financial risks,and constructs a comprehensive measurement system of regional financial risks.Based on classical financial risk theory(financial risk source theory,financial risk identification theory and financial risk measurement theory),this paper constructs a regional financial risk monitoring and early warning system from three aspects of macro-economy,regional economy and regional finance,and finally selects 39 indicators to comprehensively measure regional financial risks.The expert opinion method is used to construct the judgment matrix,and AHP method(analytic hierarchy process)is combined to weight each index,and finally the regional financial risk index is constructed.Based on the constructed financial risk index,this paper selects relevant data of Sichuan province from 2011 to 2016 to make an empirical analysis of financial risks in Sichuan province.The results show that the regional financial risk monitoring and early warning system established in this paper can better measure the regional financial risk changes in Sichuan Province.Overall,the financial operation in Sichuan Province is relatively stable,but structural risks exist:(1)The macro-economic and financial operation risk evaluation is in a moderate risk range from 2015 to 2016,and the rest years are in a basic safety range,with overall risks controllable;(2)The risk assessment of regional economic operation shows that Sichuan's financial risk is in a basically safe range,but its risk degree is on the rise.(3)Regional financial operation risk assessment.Sichuan Province's regional financial operation risk assessment score is in a safe range,but the overall risk shows a trend of increasing year by year.Finally,combined with the empirical results,the paper finds out the problems existing in the financial operation of Sichuan Province and puts forward relevant preventive measures against the problems.The comprehensive evaluation of financial risks in Sichuan Province in this paper is basically consistent with the research results in other relevant documents,which further verifies the rationality of the regional financial risk index constructed in this paper.Therefore,the regional financial risk evaluation index system constructed in this paper can be used to measure financial risks in different regions and provide services for the steady development of economic entities in different regions from another perspective.