Empirical Analysis Of Non-life Insurance Demand In China

With the development of the society,the insurance industry,one of the three pillars of the financial system,plays an increasingly important role in the life of residents.However,the structure of the insurance industry itself is unbalanced,the development of the non-life insurance sector is relatively slow,and the product supply side is relatively insufficient.A few scholars have carried out theoretical analysis and empirical analysis on the demand of non-life insurance,and the analysis results do not systematically explain the development status of non-life insurance in China,and do not find a good solution.Based on this situation,on the basis of previous scholars' research,a systematic re-selection of explanatory variables and models for China's non-life insurance demand empirical analysis.There are many improvements in the research methods of previous scholars,such as the strong correlation between each explanatory variable and the possibility of duplication.The modeling process does not take into account the stability of the sequence,long-term and short-term fluctuations.Therefore,in order to more accurately analyze China's non-life insurance demand,the correlation,independence and operability of research data are considered.Gross domestic product(GDP),the growth rate of fixed assets,real interest rates,education level,insurable risk loss five main factors as explanatory variables,the premium rate to be explained variables,using co-integration model,analysis of sequence,and consider the long-term fluctuation relationship between the sequence,co-integration model and error correction,eliminate the influence of sequence short-term fluctuations.Finally,the Ganger causality test among sequences is carried out,which not only gives the correlation in mathematical sense,but also gives the causality in economic sense.The results show that the traditional multivariate linear model is not suitable for empirical analysis of non-life insurance demand,and the model fitting effect is notgood.Using the co-integration model in modern economic theory,it can be concluded that there is a long-term fluctuation relationship between explanatory variables in each group.In the mathematical co-integration model,the growth rates of GDP and fixed assets have a positive effect on the growth of non-life insurance demand.The loss of real interest rate,education level and insurable risk has a reverse driving effect on the growth of non-life insurance demand.On the other hand,in the economic sense,the GDP,the growth rate of fixed assets and the real interest rate are the short-term causes of non-life insurance demand fluctuations,and there is a causal relationship.Taking the empirical results into consideration,the growth rate of fixed assets is the most significant factor affecting the non-life insurance demand in China.