The Study On The 11-year Solar Activity Signal In The Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Under The Global Warming

Solar activity is one of the important natural drivers of interdecadal climate change.That exist in the upper atmosphere,the stratosphere ozone by solar ultraviolet?UV?radiation and the settlement of the middle tier NOx composition fluctuations,change the thermal structure in the stratosphere,lead to the stratosphere of meridional temperature gradient change,thus affecting wave activity and circulation structure between the stratosphere and troposphere system,will this change to the troposphere,affect the surface climate,and the process is the most significant in winter.Since the sharp rise of global surface temperature in modern times,the change of solar activity signal in the 11-year solar cycle in the northern hemisphere climate has been a hot issue in the field of solar terrestrial weather and climate research.To explore under the background of global warming in the northern hemisphere winter climate decadal variation characteristics of solar activity signal based on reanalysis data,from 1958 to1977 and 1978-2010 records were applied the method of synthetic analysis research in the northern hemisphere winter in the north Atlantic sea level pressure response to solar activity,on the basis of the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of further analysis of planetary wave activity in the stratosphere and residual mean meridional circulation,temperature is discussed under the background of the change of the solar activity in the stratosphere signal transfer function and its possible effect mechanism;Climate sensitivity tests were carried out on the possible mechanisms using chemical-climate model?SOCOL3.0?,that is,three control groups were set up to simulate the characteristics of the 11-year cycle solar activity signals transmitted by the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere in winter under different CO₂ concentration scenarios,and the influence of CO₂ concentration changes on solar activity signals was evaluated.The simulation data of three carbon dioxide emission scenarios?RCP scenarios?of five modes in CMIP5 were analyzed,the solar activity signals under the future GHGs concentration change were analyzed,and the response of the northern hemisphere winter climate to the 11-year solar activity cycle under different RCP scenarios was discussed.The main achievements are as follows:?1?Climate reanalysis data analysis shows that the NAO-like signal of the north Atlantic sea level pressure in the winter of the northern hemisphere in the year of high solar activity from 1978-2010,which appeared about 1 month earlier than that in 1958-1977,was more significant in time.In combination with observation data and stratospheric climate sensitivity test data analysis,think that this is due to the increase in global CO₂ concentration leads to rise in winter on the top of the equatorial stratospheric ozone concentration and temperature of the stratospheric polar vortex decline,thus 11-year solar cycle activities caused by the westerly anomaly,planetary wave reflection phenomenon and the residual mean meridional circulation weakened ahead of time,eventually led to the climate of solar activity in the troposphere signal in advance.?2?The simulation results under three RCPs scenarios in the five models of CMIP5show that RCP8.5 is more significant than RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 in simulating the positive anomalies of the temperature of the equatorial stratopause.However,most of the model experiments are not effective in the simulation of the relevant dynamic responses such as the positive anomaly of the mid-latitude zonal wind,the reflection of the planetary wave and the weakening of the residual mean meridional circulation.However,monthly solar activity signal analysis in the MPI-ESM-MR model showed that the equatorial stratopause with high solar activity RCP8.5 increased significantly,and a similar"double peak"structure appeared in November and December.In the three RCPs scenarios,the latitudinal wind,the anomaly of the planetary wave and the poleward transmission from the center of the westerly wind anomaly all occurred.With the increase of GHGs concentration,the occurrence time of the above solar activity signals has been advanced.?3?Based on the research results on three kinds of data show that in relatively high concentrations of GHGs?especially CO₂?background fields,the polar cold temperature,The high solar activity causes in stronger equatorial stratospheric temperature,are more likely to achieve enough meridional temperature gradient in mid-latitudes,makes the westerly anomaly earlier formation,the earth's climate response to 11-year solar cycle will be ahead of time.