Application Of Statistical Methods And Mathematical Models In Disease And Sport

This paper is to discuss the application of statistical methods and mathematical models in human disease and sport.The details are given as followsBased on the data of the incidence of schistosomiasis in China from January 2011 to May 2018 we establish SARIMA model and NARX model.These two models are used to predict the incidence of schistosomiasis in China from June 2018 to September 2018.By comparing the mean square error and the mean absolute error of two sets of predicted values,the results show that the NARX model is better and it has an effective forecasting precision to incidence of schistosomiasis.Then according to the results,a mixed model called NARX-SARIMA model is used to predict the incidence future trends and make a comparison with the two model.The mixed model has a better application based on its good fitting capabilityFor the results of the physical tests of college students,this paper used the method of principal component analysis to analyze the main factors affecting col-lege students physical quality.Based on the principal component scores equation and comprehensive scores equation,we can get the conclusion that college student should have different sports events during the four years to improve their physical quality.Besides,according to the scores of physical quality with every student,we can rank them to understand the physical quality condition of each one,and give them different effectiveness suggestions to improve their physical qualityWe divide the crowd into three categories based on the ability and willingness of sports,we consider the negative and positive impacts of the three types of people's contact with each other,and establish two new models.The study found that the qualitative conclusions of the two systems were completely different.Through analysis,it is concluded that the zero equilibrium point and the positive equilibrium point always exist in the negative model,and the positive equilibrium point is the center.The positive influence among various types of people in the positive model will lead to multiple equilibrium points and different centers in the system.