A Study On The Measurement Of The Medium Andlong-term Potential Growth Rate Of China's Economy In The New Era

In October 2017,the 19 th National Congress clearly stated that China's economic development has entered a new era.China's economy has shown the characteristics of a new era,including the transition from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth,the optimization and upgrading of economic structure,and the shift from factor-driven,investment-driven to innovation-driven.In the new era,China's economy is facing unprecedented challenges.Based on the characteristics of China's economic development in the new era,this paper measures the potential growth rate of China's economy from different angles.Firstly,from the perspective of domestic supply,considering the contribution of factor input to economic growth,the state space model is introduced to construct a flexible variable production function model.Combining the background of the new era,the concept of "effective labor" is proposed,and the capital and labor input factors are reestimated separately.It is found that the potential growth rate of China's economy measured by the production function can well fit the turning point of China's economic cycle from 1978 to 2016,and predict the potential growth rate of China's economy in the new era of 2017-2035.Secondly,from the point of view of international market,we use Phillips Curve and Authentic Law economic theory and international market factors in the Vector Autoregression Model,and introduce inflation,foreign exchange reserve and exchange rate to measure the potential growth rate of China's economy.The results show that the predicted potential growth rate of the year before 1986 is in good agreement with the actual growth rate.After 1986,when the international market is turbulent,the potential growth rate is often lower than the real growth rate.When the international market is stable,the potential growth rate is often higher than the real growth rate.And predict the potential growth rate of China's economy in the new era of 2017-2035.Finally,the upper and lower limits of China's potential economic growth rate in the medium and long term in the future are given based on the results of two models and the fitting analysis of the potential growth rate and the actual growth rate in the historical period.The results of predicting the medium and long-term potential economic growth rate in the new era from 2017 to 2035 show that the potential economic growth rate in 2020 is between 5.51% and 7.06%,the potential economic growth rate in 2025 is between 4.23% and 6.45%,the potential economic growth rate in 2030 is between 3.55% and 4.73%,and the potential economic growth rate in 2035 is between 3.02% and 5.40%.