Analysis Of Spatiotemporal Evolution Of Built-up Area Based On Luminous Remote Sensing Data And Land Use Scale Forecast

For a long time,the built-up area has gathered a large number of population and resources by virtue of its location advantages.At the same time,the built-up area is also the center of urban economy and culture.In the 21 st century,the urban development becomes more and more rapid,while the urban development will inevitably be accompanied by the rapid expansion of the built-up area,the sharp problems such as the widening gap between urban and rural areas,the imbalance of resource distribution and regional development will be increasingly prominent.The size of the built-up area is one of the indicators that can best reflect the level of human activity and urban development.Therefore,the dynamic monitoring,analysis and prediction of urban built-up areas are of great significance for the rational planning of urban land use.This paper takes Fujian Province as the research object,takes DMSP / OLS night lighting data in 2001,2003,2005,2007,2009,2011,2013 and npp-viirs night lighting data in 2015 and 2017 as the basic data,and combines the statistical yearbook data of Fujian Province in 2001-2017 to carry out the corresponding research.On this basis,the main work and conclusions of this study are as follows include:(1)Extract the built-up area.In this paper,the binary iteration method is used to extract the built-up area of nighttime lighting data.Firstly,the built-up area of all cities in Fujian Province in 2001-2017 is extracted,and then the built-up area of Fujian Province in corresponding years is obtained by the method of accumulation.In this way,the area of builtup areas in different cities is firstly extracted and accumulated to get the area of built-up areas in Fujian Province,which greatly reduces the possibility of accidental error.Compared with the statistical data,the accuracy of the area extracted from the built-up areas in Fujian Province in each year is over 96%.It shows that it is feasible to extract urban built-up areas by using night lighting data,and the extracted results can be used in the study of urban space in Fujian Province.(2)Analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution of the expansion of the built-up area.Based on the data of built-up areas in different cities over the years extracted from the experiment,this paper first summarizes the overall situation,and then analyzes it from two aspects of time series and spatial characteristics.In terms of time series,it mainly analyzes the expansion speed,amplitude,strength and elastic coefficient of the built-up area,and in terms of spatial characteristics,it mainly analyzes the compactness,spatial pattern,center of gravity change and expansion direction of the built-up area.It is found that several cities with rapid expansion of built-up areas in Fujian Province are all southeast coastal cities,and the development of inland cities is relatively unbalanced,so a balance point should be found in the development of each region.(3)Prediction of the scale of the built-up area.Based on the data of built-up area in Fujian Province from 2001 to 2017,a ridge regression grey prediction model is constructed.The prediction model is tested with the corresponding area data of the built-up area from 2001 to 2017,and the test results are relatively good.Through a variety of test methods to evaluate the model,the results show that the model can be applied to the long-term prediction of this study.Finally,the land use scale of the built-up area in Fujian Province from 2018 to 2030 is predicted.In the research,the spatial-temporal change analysis of the urban built-up area in Fujian Province is of great significance for how to optimize the urban spatial structure by relying on the advantages of coastal and tourism resources,how to give full play to the role of the advantageous regional help,and how to promote the coordinated development of the whole province to a higher quality;the prediction and analysis of the urban built-up area scale in Fujian Province is of great significance for making cities It is of great practical significance to make the development plan more scientific and reasonable.