| Based on the analysis of the concept of resilience,this paper explores the connotation of regional flood resilience,constructs an appropriate evaluation index system,and introduces the relevant indicators Coefficient,take the flood disaster resilience as the planting constraint condition,establish the regional agricultural planting structure model,introduce the wind driven optimization(WDO),put forward an improved project pursuit(PP)evaluation model of flood disaster resilience and the multi-objective optimization model of planting structure fitting by least square and polynomial.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)Taking the farms under the jurisdiction of Hongxinglong Administration Bureau of Heilongjiang Province as the main research scope,through the analysis of basic data,the geographical location and climatic conditions of Hongxinglong administration bureau are explored.Based on the discussion of the research progress of flood disaster resilience,the concept of flood disaster resilience is defined,the development history of resilience is analyzed,and because of the characteristics of flood disaster,the index hierarchy frame chart is proposed.The sea selection includes There are 43 primary indexes in the four criteria levels of natural environment,human society,economic development and flood control technology.Based on the shortcomings of the current evaluation index system model,the paper comprehensively considers the subjective and objective evaluation factors,adopts the R clustering factor analysis screening method,and finally determines 15 optimal indexes,which are used for the subsequent evaluation of flood disaster resilience and agriculture under the constraint of flood disaster resilience The research of planting structure optimization provides effective premise guarantee.(2)Through Rastrigin and Schaffer functions to test the performance of three algorithms: wind driven optimization,improved particle swarm optimization(APSO)and improved genetic algorithm(AGA),the success rate of WDO algorithm is significantly higher than that of APSO and aga.At the same time,in the convergence curve,WDO algorithm shows a fast convergence speed and the best fitting effect.Based on the analysis of the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of flood disaster resilience of 12 farms by using WDO optimized PP model and combining with the current situation of the region,the results are in line with the local actual situation: the number of level IV farms with poor flood disaster resilience level decreased from 25% to 8.3% in 2002-2009;in 2009-2016,except for the reduction of the flood disaster resilience index of the two farms in the eighth five year plan and Shuguang,the rest The farm has improved.From 2002 to 2016,the flood disaster resilience of the farms in the central region of Hongxinglong administration bureau is poor,and the rest of the farms with better flood disaster resilience are mainly distributed in the East and West Riverside Areas of Hongxinglong Administration Bureau.The distribution characteristics of the overall flood disaster resilience of the farms in Hongxinglong Administration Bureau show a trend of "decreasing gradually from north to south,from both sides of the river to the central inland".(4)Based on the multi-objective optimization method of the least square and polynomial fitting model,this paper analyzes the current research on the optimization model of planting structure,clarifies the unity of opposites among the decision variables in the research of planting structure,adds the coefficient of flood disaster resilience and other auxiliary models to the common constraint conditions,and calculates the nature,society and economy Economic and ecological benefits,crop demand and planting area in 2020,2025 and 2030 are predicted,and the stability and rationality of the results before and after the constraint of flood disaster resilience are discussed by means of mean square error method.The prediction results show that the overall benefits of Hongxinglong Administration Bureau will be in a good state in the future,the total area of crop planting will be gradually expanded,the proportion of corn and rice planting area will be significantly increased,the crop demand will continue to expand,and the mean square error of prediction results will be reduced by more than three times on average after adding the constraint coefficient of flood disaster resilience.Compared with other areas where corn,soybean,rice and other economic crops are mainly planted,it is necessary to continue to enrich the plant diversity in the planting area and improve the regional environment’s ability to resist disasters while ensuring the improvement of regional economy in the production process.In the future,by virtue of the research on the optimization of planting structure,we can achieve the goal of improving the ability to resist flood disaster,providing a reasonable planting proportion of flood and drought crops,and reducing the risk of flood disaster within the scope of regional farms,so as to provide new ideas for the research on the regional agricultural planting structure of farms in the future. |
