Research For Chongqing Land Ticket Price Based On Real Option Method

The land ticket is a kind of index linked with the increase and decrease of urban and rural construction land.The index of rural idle construction land is sent to cities and towns in the form of cultivated land reclamation,which avoids the legal restriction that the rural collective construction land can not directly enter the market,and activates the rural land factor market.On December 4,2008,Chongqing carried out the first land ticket transaction.After 12 years of practice and exploration,Chongqing land ticket system has made some achievements in ensuring the number of national cultivated land,developing rural idle land resources and promoting the integration of urban and rural construction land property rights.However,the system is still unable to be implemented and established in the country.The main reasons are as follows: It is the low price elasticity of Chongqing land ticket and the low marketization of price formation mechanism.At present,most scholars study the price formation mechanism in the process of land ticket reclamation and transaction from the perspective of land development right,which is limited by the fuzzy pricing method of land development right,and can not quantify the land ticket price effectively.Meanwhile,some scholars proposed that for Chongqing land ticket holders,the use price represented by land ticket is the sum of two fee price and the value of plot option,but did not give a quantitative method of option.Therefore,this paper attempts to explore the option attribute of the option in the land ticket from the perspective of the right of the land ticket holder,construct the matching real option valuation model,simulate the moving path of the house price and the land price in Chongqing by using the least square Monte Carlo simulation method,calculate the value of the option in the land ticket in Chongqing,and draw the conclusion by using the sensitivity analysis The sensitivity of Chongqing land ticket price to various influencing factors.The results show that: 1)the price of land ticket in Chongqing should be adjusted according to the change of economic environment;2)The price of Chongqing land ticket should be the sum of "two pays" and option price,and option price can be estimated by real option method;3)The price of land ticket in Chongqing is affected by many factors,and whether the right of land ticket is clear has a great influence on the price.Through the research conclusion,this paper puts forward three policy suggestions for Chongqing's land ticket system: 1)establish a district level land ticket trading market,and change the status quo of "same tickets are same price";2)Clearly define the attribute of ticket power and improve the degree of marketization of transaction;3)In order to ensure the minimum return of the land ticket supplier and prevent the excessive fluctuation of land ticket price,the fluctuation range of land ticket price should be constructed.