| The economy is the source of taxation,the economy determines the generation of taxation,the size of the economy determines the scale of taxation,the level of economic development determines the level of tax burden,the economic and technological content determines the taxation,and the economic reform determines the tax reform;on the contrary,taxation is an objective reflection of the economy.It can reflect the development trend of the economy and has a significant adverse effect on the economy.It mainly affects the economic operation efficiency and the economic interests of all parties through factors such as tax increase and decrease,tax rate adjustment,tax reduction and taxation,tax burden level and degree of collection and management.economic development.In other words,the development of economic taxation is complementary and closely related.Under normal circumstances,the trend of economic taxation is consistent and basically coordinated.Since the reform and opening up,the private economy has flourished and grown,and it has played a significant role in stabilizing growth,promoting innovation,increasing employment,and improving people's livelihood.It has become an indispensable and important force for promoting economic and social development.However,the international situation is changing and the domestic economic system reform has entered the deep water area.In the new historical opportunity period,how can the private economy overcome the transformation of the enterprise in the face of new changes in the domestic and international environment and the transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development? The dual pressure of the market environment,whether it can continue to maintain healthy and rapid growth,is a major proposition related to the stability of the economy,the long-term stability of society,the success and failure of reform,the great rejuvenation of the nation.In order to better analyze,predict and grasp the development trend of the private economy and its taxation,we will deeply promote the leading-edge mathematical statistics model and rich tax forecasting work practices,and find a way to meet and promote objective tax forecasting.Support scientific methods that can more accurately predict tax trends.Based on the current situation of private economy development in Chongqing,this paper uses principal component analysis to remove the interference of irrelevant information,and uses several selected principal components as independent variables.Chongqing private economy tax as a dependent variable.The least squares linear model of the principal component and the taxation of private economy in Chongqing is obtained.Then the model is transformed into a linear model of taxation of various taxes and private economy in Chongqing,and an exponential smoothing model of principal component regression is constructed.Finally,using three exponential smoothing to obtain the value of each tax in the next few years,bring into the above linear model,empirically test and analyze the taxation data of Chongqing private economy in 2006-2018,and obtain the predicted value of the tax revenue of Chongqing private economy in the next few years.Compared with the prediction results of other traditional exponential smoothing models,it is concluded that the exponential smoothing model of principal component regression is scientific,accurate and applicable in tax forecasting. |
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