Research On Epidemic Transmission Model Based On Mobile Behavior

The spread of epidemics has a serious impact on personal health,national economic and social stability.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the transmission mechanism of epidemics,prevent the outbreak of potential epidemics and formulate scientific and effective control measures.Individual mobility and communication behavior have great influence on epidemic transmission.This paper focuses on how human mobility and communication behavior affect epidemic transmission threshold and scale by using complex network analysis method.By constructing a realistic epidemic transmission network model,analyzing the transmission threshold,and using numerical simulation method,the interaction mechanism between human mobility and communication behavior and epidemic transmission was discussed.Firstly,considering that the distance between regions has a great influence on the individual's mobile behavior,based on the individual's mobile behavior,a coupling dynamic model of individual's movement and the spread of infectious diseases is established.According to the next generation matrix method,the basic renewable number of the epidemic transmission model is theoretically analyzed.The results show that with the increase of commuting level,the longer the density of infected persons reaches a stable level,and at a specific observation time point,the density of infected persons varies greatly among regions,but when the time is large enough,the density of infected persons in all regions is almost the same.In addition,as long as there is individual mobility,the difference in initial infection rate can only accelerate or delay the outbreak of infectious diseases,but has little impact on the final scale of transmission of infectious diseases.Then,based on the difference between individual activity and transmission ability in reality,a new epidemic transmission model considering individual transmission ability is established in the activity-driven network.The transmission threshold of this kind of infectious disease is deduced theoretically,and the transmission situation of the infectious disease is studied by numerical simulation under the condition that the individual activity rate is not related to the individual transmission ability and related circumstances.It provides a feasible method for discussing the influence of individual activity and the difference of transmission ability on the transmission of infectious disease.The results show that when the individual activity rate is not correlated with the individual transmission ability,the change range of the transmission threshold of infectious diseases is much higher than that of the individual average activity rate and the individual average transmission ability.When the recovery rate of the infected person is small,the average activity rate of the individual has little effect on the density of the infected person in the whole system.When there is a strong negative correlation between individual activity rate and individual transmission ability,there is almost no relationship between individual infection ability and individual infection frequency,but when individual activity rate and transmission ability have a strong positive correlation,there is also a strongpositive correlation between individual infection ability and individual infection frequency.