A Study On SARCH Effect Of Land Price Fluctuation

Land is the basic element of social productivity,and land price reflects the supply and demand in land market,modifies the usage,and optimizes the allocation of resource etc.In recent years,land supply side reform has made steady progress,which has profound influence on perfecting the land and real estate markets,suppressing land price,and regulating housing price.Land price is related closely to real estate price,so investigating land price can guide the reasonable expectations of the real estate market and direct the real estate market to perform robustly.In contrast to studies with Hedonic Price model,this paper,taking the interrelationship of land distribution in space into consideration,based on the residential land data in Beijing,uses spatial econometrics methods for research.Due to the large number of independent variables,principal components analysis is used to select principal component factors to avoid the influence of multicollinearities.By constructing Spatial Hedonic Price model and SARCH model,this paper research spatial heterogeneity of the volatilities of transaction prices of residential land in Beijing.The research results show the spatial autocorrelation of transaction prices of residential land and variations.Correlation coefficients and variance inflation factors among characteristic variables of residential land show that there are serious multicollinearities among these variables.So principal components analysis is used to avoid the influence of multicollinearities to construct Spatial Hedonic Price model,in which the autoregressive coefficient of first order is 0.221.That indicates there are spatial dependence of land transaction prices.The land transaction prices are not only affected by characteristic variables but also affected by transaction prices of nearby residential land.The regression result shows that the slope coefficient in SARCH model is 0.187.That demonstrates there are spatial heteroskedasticity of land transaction prices volatilities,there is spatial transmission in residential land transaction price risk.