| The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)is a channel consisting of roads,railways,oil and gas pipelines,optical cables and electric power lines.From the north of Kashgar Prefecture of China to the south of Gwadar Port of Pakistan,the total length of the corridor is 3,000 km.The CPEC is guided by the Karakoram Highway(KKH),which runs through the Pamirs Plateau.As a bridge of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,the corridor plays an important role in collaborating among China,South Asia,and the Middle East.Also,the CEPC is the pilot and the major project of the Belt and Road initiative.On the other hand,considering the wide areas the CPEC covers,it is important to take the great differences of diversities in to account,especially considering the natural environment,complex geological conditions,frequent seismic activities,and extremely poor regional stability,resulting in many geo-hazards in the region,which is seriously threatening the construction and livelihood security of the CPEC.Therefore,scientific and accurate analysis of the susceptibility of geo-hazards in this region has become a major and urgent practical issue facing the construction of the CPEC.Base on this background.First of all,the geo-hazards were interpreted through the Google Image in the study area,and the small-scale geo-hazards by field investigation and the NASA database of geo-hazards data were used to verify the interpreted geo-hazards and the detailed geo-hazards catalog was established.Then,the characteristics and susceptibility of the geo-hazards in the CPEC were analyzed,and the susceptible areas of the study area were divided.At last,the countermeasures and suggestions for the prevention and control of geo-hazards in the CPEC are briefly introduced.The several results indicated in the research are going to be discussed in the following passage.Firstly,the types of geo-hazards in the CPEC are mainly landslides,collapse and debris flows,in which about 75%of geo-hazards is small scale(area less than 1km~2).There are only 12 large-scale(area more than 50km~2)geo-hazards points,which are landslides and gully debris flows.Spatially,the distribution of geo-hazards points in the CPEC shows the characteristics of south lower than north.From the timeline,the frequency of geo-hazards of medium-sized and above scales in the CPEC is generally higher in the past 10 years.Secondly,this paper select nine indicators such as elevation,slope,topographic relief,seismic density,multi-year average rainfall,distance from fault,lithology,distance from river and distance from rode to establish the geo-hazards susceptibility analysis index system of CPEC.Through this system to analyzes and explores the relationship between the frequency of geo-hazards and effected indicators.The weighted information model,the weight of evidence method and the logistic regression model based on CF value were used to quantitatively and comprehensively analyze the susceptibility of geo-hazards in CPEC.Using ROC curve to verify the geo-hazards susceptibility of the CPEC based on three models,and to select more accurate results for the study area susceptible division.The result of the analysis by the logistic regression model based on CF value has higher precision.So the results by the logistic regression model based on CF value were used to divide the study area into three regions:low susceptible zone,medium susceptible zone,and high susceptible zone.The result of susceptibility analysis of geo-hazards is consistent with the natural conditions of in the CPEC.So the result of susceptibility analysis of the geo-hazards in this paper have certain scientific and credibility.Finally,Combined with the actual situation of the CPEC,authoritative and efficient monitoring system,early warning release system,emergency command system,and emergency evacuation system should be established.For hydropower projects and road projects,we should adhere to the principles of avoidance,governance and management. |
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