Analysis Of Climate Change And Climate Productivity In Anhui Province In The Last 53 Years

Affected by global climate change,extrcme weather is frequent and agriculture is the sensitive industry to climate change.The study of climate change is helpful to provide scientific basis for agricultural production and disaster prevention and mitigation.Based on the daily meteorological data of temperature and precipitation from 1960 to 2012 in 20 meteorological observatories in Anhui Province,combined with the Thornthwaite Memorial climate model,the climatic productivity of crops in Anhui Province was calculated.The variation trend of temperature,precipitation and climate productivity in the whole time series is analyzed,and the abrupt characteristics of temperature and precipitation are tested by M-K.The spatial distribution characteristics of temperature,precipitation and climatic productivity were analyzed by Kriging interpolation method of ArcGIS in Anhui Province.The correlation and sensitivity analysis of climate productivity was carried out by means of Matlab,and the key factors affecting climate productivity were determined.The relationship model between temperature,precipitation and climate productivity is established to predict the change trend of climate productivity in the future in Anhui Province.The conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)In the past 53 years,the annual and seasonal temperatures have been on an upward trend in Anhui Province,especially after the 1990s.The results of M-K test show that the annual and seasonal mean temperatures have mutated except in summer,spring,autumn and winter.The spatial distribution of air temperature shows strong regularity in Anhui Province.The annual,spring,autumn and winter mean temperature decreases gradually from southeast to northwest,and the diference between north and south is great,the temperature in summer is generally higher,and the difference between north and south is not obvious.The central temperature is relatively high.(2)In recent 53 years,the precipitation has been fluctuated and increased in summer and winter in Anhui Province and the precipitation has been declined in spring and autumn,but there is no abrupt change in annual and seasonal precipitation.The spatial distribution of precipitation in Anhui Province shows that the spatial distribution ofprecipitation in spring and winter is consistent,which decreases from southeast to northwe,st,and the zonal distribution is obvious.The summer precipitation is higher in the southwest and lower in the central and northwest in Anhui Province.The precipitation in autumn is the highest in the southeast and southwestand The rest region declines in descending order of latitude.(3)In recent 53 years,the annual climate productivity increased in summer and decreased in autumn in Anhui Province.The spatial distribution characteristics of climate productivity in Anhui Province are as follows:annual climate productivity decreases from southeast to northwest with latitude in turn,climate productivity is the highest in southwest for summer,but climate productivity is lowest in Hefei,Dangshan and Bozhou.Autumn climate productivity is highest in southwest and southeast and lowest in north.(4)In recent 53 years,the relationship between temperature,precipitation and climate productivity in Anhui Province is as follows:the influence of temperature change on climate productivity is negative,and the influence of precipitation on climate productivity is positively correlated.The results of sensitivity analysis of climate productivity in Anhui Province show that "warm and wet" climate is conducive to the increase of climate productivity,"cold and wet","cold and dry" and "warm and dry"climate do not take advantage of the increase of climate productivity.In the future,Anhui Province is more inclined to"warm and wet" climate,which is conducive to the increase of climate productivity and crop yield.Based on the climate model between temperature,precipitation and climate productivity,it can be predicted that the annual climate productivity in Anhui Province will increase by 3142.967kg/hm2 every 10 years,the summer climate productivity will increase by 1426.737kg/hm2 every 10 years,and the autumn climate productivity will be reduced by 5.706kg/hm2every 10 years.