Passenger Flow Forecast Of Beijing Expo In 2019

In 2019,the Beijing World Garden will endeavor to internalize the long-standing Chinese civilization and profound Chinese culture into the overall planning,park construction,horticultural display,event planning and comprehensive services of the World Expo,and actively disseminate and develop Chinese horticultural culture.Let the world perceive China and let China integrate into the world.In order to better improve the quality of service and predict the risks in the future,it is a necessary process to predict the passenger flow during the opening period.This paper determines the theoretical basis and the measurement methods of different indicators by sorting out the related literatures such as the passenger flow forecast and the change of passenger flow under the influence of large events.Firstly,this study introduces spectral analysis-Fourier series regression for the first time in the analysis of the magnitude of the influence of tourists on the occurrence of large events,and validates the results of spectral analysis by the background trend-linear+logistic regression composite function model.Secondly,this paper uses SPSS to measure the attractiveness of cities in Qingdao,Xi'an and Beijing through the existing comprehensive evaluation index system of cities,and find out the differences between the three cities.That is to say,Xi'an and Beijing's urban influence as a bridge,combined with the impact of the Xi'an World Expo Association on the amount of tourists,calculate the impact of the Beijing World Expo on the reception volume of tourists in 2019.In addition,this study takes the tourist reception volume of Yanqing City as the research object over the years,and fits its time series through different curve estimation.Finally,the equation with the highest fitting degree and the smallest error is selected to predict the tourist reception volume in Yanqing area in 2019.Finally,combined with the values of all the above indicators,the passenger flow during the opening of the Beijing World Expo will be calculated.The final conclusions are:(1)Provide new analytical methods and ideas for the analysis of the impact on passenger flow in the event of a sudden occurrence.(2)When an event of the same nature occurs,the impact on local passenger traffic is related to the city's influence.(3)According to the results of the questionnaire survey,the understanding of the World Expo will not be enough.In order to increase the traffic volume,the propaganda method should be increased.