The Test Of Efficiency And Price Forecast In The Bitcoin Market

The adaptive market hypothesis(AMH)is the combination of the efficient mar-ket hypothesis(EMH)and behavioral finance.For emerging markets like Bitcoin,it’s not consistent with reality to accpect the market efficiency of Bitcoin remains the same which EMH hypothes.In this context,the AMH framework is used to evaluate the efficiency evolution of the Bitcoin market and to verify whether AMH is established.On the one hand,it can verify the characteristics of the Bitcoin mar-ket,on the other hand,it can use the Bitcoin market to further verify the various properties of AMH.From the perspective of dynamic market efficiency,this paper uses the complex-entropy plane statistic test to test the efficiency of the Bitcoin market,and compare it with the long-range dependence test.The research results show that the chang-ing market environment has made the efficiency of the Bitcoin market constantly changing.Some violent efficiency fluctuations may be related to the big events of Bitcoin.The conclusions obtained support AMH.Moreover,we use the vector error correction model to model and predict the price of Bitcoin.Forecasting the price trend of Bitcoin within a small margin of error.