Analysis Of Precipitation And Runoff Changes In Niangziguan Spring Area

The Niangziguan spring area,located in Yangquan City,Shanxi Province,has carried out in-depth research on its precipitation and runoff,given that it has played an important role in water supply in its area.It is used in a variety of ways,including the trend and establishment of profiling sequences.Related models,etc.Comparing these methods,the great advantage of the quantile regression method is that it can fully excavate the information contained in the research data,and can draw more detailed and credible conclusions.The regression estimator is not easy to change due to the occurrence of outliers,and is relatively stable.And for the disturbance term in the constructed model,the quantile regression does not need to assume its related characteristics in advance,so that the model has good adaptability.The trend of multiple regression lines fitted by the digit regression method is different,which leads to the change of the probability distribution of different years.Therefore,after obtaining the regression line at different quantiles,for the precipi-tation and runoff sequences of Niangziguan spring area,it is also necessary to analyze the changes in their probability distributions in different years.In order to understand the trend of precipita-tion and runoff in Niangziguan spring area in more detail,we use time series analysis to explore it,predict the trend of change in the next few years,and draw corresponding confidence intervals,which can provide a scientific basis for water resources management of relevant departments.It is divided into five chapters.The first chapter first describes the background of the research,explains why this research is carried out,and explains the existing research results related to it.In addition,the main tasks of this paper are also bricfly explained.The second chapter describes the general situation of the study area and preprocesses the data needed in the paper.In the third chapter,the annual precipitation and runoff data of the Niangziguan spring area from 1959 to 2009 were studied by the quantile regression method.The variation characteristics and response relationship between them were studied.In the fourth chapter,based on the quantile regression analysis,the distribution function and probability density function of the sequence in a given year are studied on the annual precipitation and annual runoff series of the Niangziguan spring area from 1959 to 2009,in turn,recognize the distribution characteristics of the annual precipitation and runoff series in the Niangziguan spring area.In addition,in order to understand the similarities and differences of precipitation in various areas of the Niangziguan spring area,the changes of the annual precipitation sequence distribution of different rainfall observation stations were compared.The fifth chapter analyzes the precipitation and runoff data of the study area from 1959 to 2009 by means of time series analysis,and analyzes the variation trend of annual precipitation and annual runoff series by constructing ARIMA model.In addition,the basis of the above research In the above,the trend and confidence interval of the sequence in the next few years are predicted.