Study On Risk Transfer Rule Of Water Resources In Pearl River Basin

Water is the source of life.Risk assessment of water resources is an effective way for enormously improving management level and effechange and human activities,the frequencies of floods and droughts-floods abrupt alternation ctively addressing water resources problems.Under the influence of climate have significantly increased,resulting in great economic loses.The Pearl River Basin is more vulnerable to floods and droughts-floods abrupt alternation due to its unique geographical location,underlying conditions and climatic conditions.Therefore,it is a significance to identify the rule of water resource risk transfer in the Pearl River Basin,which will provide new method of identifying the risk levels and transfer rules of the multi-objective scheduling technology and regional water reserouces management.According to the meteorological and humanistic data of the Pearl River Basin from 2000 to 2016,this paper applies mathematical statistics and geographic information systems to establish risk assessment models associated with floods and droughts-floods abrupt alternation,which is based on the disaster formation mechanism and the four-factor theory of disasters.A flood risk transfer model is developed based on using Markov chain,and the path analysis is used to establish the droughts-floods abrupt alternation risk transfer model,which can determine the risk transfer path and risk transfer rule The following conclusions could be drawn:(1)the main risk sources of flood risk in the Pearl River Basin are heavy rain and typhoon.The flood risk in the Pearl River Delta is high,while the lower flood risk is occurred in the Hongliu River;(2)within the Markov risk transfer model,the time-based risk transfer probability matrix can predict the flood risk status of the basin,while the space-based Markov risk transfer probability matrix can analyse the risk transfer path and mode.Both decreased(from high risk to low risk)and increased(from low risk to high risk)exist in the Pearl River Basin;(3)there is no cross-basin situation droughts-floods abrupt risk transfer in the basin.When the risk of the Pearl River Delta in the basin east is high,the risk is positively transmitted from upstream to downstream,however,when the risk of the Hongliujiang in the basin west is high,the risk is reversed from the downstream to the upstream.Summarily,this study quantitatively evaluates the risk of floods and droughts-floods abrupt alternation in the Pearl River Basin,and discusses the transmission paths and transmission rules of risks within the basin,which can provide the new method of identifying the risk and risk transfer rules in the Pearl River Basin.