Analysis Of Discrete Game About Joint-stock Commercial Banks Market-Entry In Our Country

In order to inspect the bank deregulation of geographical branching restriction's effect,and research the horizontal competitions and market locations on the mechanism of bank market-entry decision,we constructed the structural econometric model of static discrete game with complete information to restore the strategy interactive mechanism between banks,based on the panel data of the branches of 12 joint-stock commercial banks in 672 cities across the country from 2001 to 2015.According to the total assets scale,12 commercial Banks were divided into three types:large,medium and small.By designing the counterfactual test and comparative analysis,we verified the effect of the market access policy reform and examined various forms of asymmetric strategic interactions among the three types of bank entities and within the three types.In the view of the multiple Nash equilibrium,we identified and estimated the confidence intervals of the parameters based on the idea of inferring the upper and lower bounds using the conditional moment inequality with the sub-sample simulation technique.Research found that:the population can't bring"dividends"to the banks market-entry,and the banks only follow industrial capital;the banks were accustomed to the strategy of the market-entry with headquarter as the center and extend to the surrounding area,formed the regional integration of the bank;there were asymmetric horizontal competitions among banks of different scales;the reform effectively reduced the banking market-entry threshold,and significantly promoted the marketization process of the commercial bank,which make the bank's market entry decision not only depends on the internal advantages and market location,but also subjects to the opponent's decision-making and its brand,economies of scale,etc.,while brand and operating scale barriers was proportional to the bank's total assets;the reform accelerated the marginal profit of joint-stock banks transfer from the second industry to the tertiary industry;"Niche market"strategy was better than"follow"strategy in current banking market;there was a high degree of substitutability among banks with comparable total assets.The research supplied policy suggestion about domestic and overseas sustainable development of Non-state-owned commercial banks and the financial deepening of financial constraints areas,and provided a new perspective for the study of complex competitive relationships between enterprises.