Runoff Prediction Technique Driven By TIGGE Rainfall Ensemble Data

In the world,affected by climate,geography and human activities,heavy rainfall i n flood season often cause floods caused great threat to personal and property losses,hydrological forecast came into being,timely and accurate forecasts can reduce or eve n avoid the impact of disasters.In this paper,the inflow forecasting of reservoir is stu died,and the prediction of inflow runoff is of great significance for flood control and emergency management,reservoir water resources rational utilization and reservoir oper ation and management in the downstream area of reservoir.This paper is based on the HEC-HMS hydrological model,combined with TIGGE rainfall forecast data,construct the runoff forecast model of Qingshitan reservoir,through the measured data,the resu lts found in this study to meet the basic reservoir runoff forecast.The main research c ontents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Research the HEC-HMS hydrological model parameters on the hydrological model of uncertainty analysis,find out the emotional Gao Min and low sensitivity par ameters,and as a reference,the parameters of the model were calibrated,finally throu gh the analysis of the HEC-HMS hydrological model simulation results,found the HE C-HMS hydrological model simulation results,the better flood in the river basin Qings hitan good adaptability,high simulation precision of the model,can be used for the ac tual storage reservoir runoff forecast.(2)From the European Center for ECMWF to get the TIGGE data,extracted T IGGE rainfall products suitable for the National Center for environmental prediction(N CEP)of the prediction interval is 6 hours and the forecast for the rainfall forecast dat a of 24 hours.Rainfall forecast data processing can be used for dynamical downscalin g of rainfall data HEC-HMS hydrological model through the WRF model test showed that the rainfall data after treatment TS score and BS score in a reasonable range,but the prediction accuracy of heavy rain and rainstorm as rain and rain.(3)When the rainfall runoff forecast forecast data is modified,the probability distribution of the rainfall forecast correction method in forecasting sample quantile base d on modified rainfall forecast revised data for runoff forecasting,the forecasting result is before the amendment was improved obviously,the Nash coefficient has been great ly improved.The runoff process is closer to the actual runoff forecast can correctly pr edict the most 24 hours of runoff process in future,but in the heavy rain and heavy r ain caused the flood forecast accuracy also has certain promotion space.