Research On Credit Risk Evaluation Model Of Listed Companies In China

Credit risk has been the most important form of financial risk in financial sectors,credit risk not only affects the development of financial institutions,but credit risk serious also affects the running of the country's macroeconomic,even lead to serious economic crisis.Under the background of fact that global credit is inflating constantly,the credit risk exposes more and more serious in the case of the rapid economic development of our country.With the rapid development of China's listed companies,the status of the listed companies is becoming more and more important position in the country's economy,and its development has played an important role in the rapid economic growth of our country,and its credit risk is worth our attention.It is of great practical significance to study the credit risk of the listed companies,especially an accurate assessment for the credit risk of the listed companies in our country,which is of great significance to the supervision of the securities market,the interests of investors protection and the risk control is of the credit institutions.This paper studied the credit risk assessment of the listed companies in China,and mainly studied the following aspects:First of all,this paper elaborated on the background,research significance,research status of at home and abroad and the main content and structure of the research.Combing with the credit problems of listed companies in our country,this paper expounded the reasons for the causes of the credit risk of the listed companies through the analysis and summary of many domestic and foreign research on credit risk assessment.Meanwhile it also pointed out the drawbacks existing in the study of credit risk assessment of listed companies in China.Secondly,in view of the samples of listed companies with missing data,this paper studied the construction of the credit risk assessment index system for listed companies by using the improved principal component analysis(PCA)and entropy weight method to determine evaluation index weights,and got a comprehensive score.Mainly using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),this paper chose all the specific indices in the annual financial statements of listed companies based on 4 categories of standard level,that were profitability,solvency,development capacity and management ability.Then the missing data were complemented,the principal information variables were selected by the improved principal component analysis(PCA)to obtain the indices,then the weight of each index was decided on byuse of entropy weight method rather than expert-grading method which is blamed for its too strong subjectivity.Finally,an objective and scientific credit risk evaluation index system of listed companies in our country was established.Using the index system to get the comprehensive score,the credit scoring model of listed companies in China was eventually constructed.Finally,for listed company samples without missing data,the credit rating model of listed companies in China was constructed by using the projection tracking method and Fisher's optimal segmentation method.The projection tracking method was mainly used to study the data samples to obtain comprehensive score,and its advantage was to guarantee the comprehensiveness of the index data.Secondly,an ordered sample was formed based on the comprehensive score,and the ordered samples were analyzed by Fisher's optimal segmentation method.Finally,the credit rating model of China's listed companies was obtained.