Study On Social Risk Evolution And Evaluation And Prediction Of Agricultural Drought

Drought is the most widespread natural disaster in the world,causing the greatest loss of agriculture.Drought is also one of the major natural disasters in China with extensive impact,severe damage and great loss,especially in recent years,frequent droughts,nationwide few years does not dry,not only to people's life safety,environmental damage and economic loss and confusion of life bring great impact,will induce social risk,to the impact of social psychology,social order.Agriculture is the fundamental of countries,agriculture as the major natural disasters,drought has its important social attribute,all levels of our country,has profound influence on various fields,especially in our country is in a stage of social transformation,the "three rural issues" is outstanding,strong sensitivity,as major drought occurs,easy to breed negative power,social metastable state,if this time,the government mishandled,people restless,it is easy to cause the social crisis,the natural risk of drought risk transfer to the society.In this paper,the integrated use of disaster science,management,sociology,biotics multidisciplinary theory,the theory analysis,investigation,statistical analysis,numerical calculation and simulation,case analysis,to the agricultural drought risk society evolution system theory and method of study.On the basis of defining the basic connotation of agricultural drought and social risk,the identification and type of agricultural drought social risk are expounded.To reveal the causal relationship between agricultural drought and social risk,the evolution law and evolution process of agricultural drought social risk;Using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the social risk of agricultural drought from 2006 to 2016,and to establish a grey disaster warning model to study the social risk of agricultural drought in 2018-2028;On this basis,it puts forward measures and countermeasures to effectively prevent and resolve the social risk evolution of agricultural drought.The following conclusions are reached in this paper: "disaster risk factors","gestation environment","vulnerability to natural disasters" and "ability to prevent drought and disaster reduction" are indispensable to the social risk of agricultural drought.The social risk evolution of agricultural drought will go through five periods of "incubation period","spreading period","outbreak period","decline stage" and "extinction period".Using thefuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to assess agricultural drought risk society in2006-2016,concluded that the 11 years on risk in the whole presents the downward trend,and then use the gray early-warning model 2018-2028 for the future agricultural drought risk society to come to the conclusion the eleventh year of the future agricultural drought risk society have upward trend.According to the research conclusions,the author puts forward countermeasures from the following three aspects: master the law of risk evolution,and strengthen the management of risk evolution process;Strengthen drought risk evolution forecast early warning,from the source control risk;Combining engineering measures with non-engineering measures to strengthen the response of drought risk evolution.