| With the increasing global warming,extreme precipitation events occur frequently and continue to increase.Rainstorms,floods,debris flows and other natural disasters caused by extreme precipitation have continuously impact the world's economy,the production and life of human beings.The extreme distribution of precipitation in time and space has seriously influenced theecosystem,and attracted the attention of all walks of life.The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau mountainous area located in the southwest of China is high in the northwest and low in the southeast.The rivers are deep and the topography is fragmented,which forms the unique mountain landform of the plateau,resulting in significant climatic differentiation in the region.This makes up the particularity of the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation.Combined with the GIS secondary development technology,it is of great significance to accurately reveal the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme precipitation in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau for the prevention and control of regional flood,debris flow and other geological disasters.Based on the daily precipitation data of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau from 1980 to2010 and the annual and monthly precipitation data from 1980 to 2010,the identification of extreme precipitation factors,the selection of spatial interpolation method and the selection of semi-variogram model are presented in this paper.The temporal and spatial distribution system of precipitation in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau is constructed on the component development platform based on ArcEngine.The spatial distribution interpolation of extreme precipitation,the linear tendency estimation method and the Mann-Kendall trend test method are realized.The temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation over the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau is studied by using the system.The results are as follows:(1)Through the Pearson correlation analysis,the factors that influences the precipitation in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau was found.The strongest correlation of precipitation is shown in the relative humidity-related coefficient of 0.543,and the weakest correlation coefficient was only 0.046.The other factors that influence the precipitation are the weakly related coefficient of elevation at 0.187,coefficient of slope at 0.209,coefficient of average temperature of 0.275,coefficient of site pressure at 0.314,and coefficient of sea level pressure at 0.269.(2)Four kinds of interpolation methods,including Kriging interpolation method,radial function interpolation method,inverse distance weight method and local polynomial interpolation method(correspondingly,four kinds of semi-variation function models: exponential model,Gaussian model,triangular model and spherical model)will be used to analyze the interpolation of precipitation in Yun-Gui Plateau.The results shows that the Kriging interpolation method(as well as Gaussian model)is the best to show the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in Yun-Gui Plateau.(3)Using the ArcEngine component development tool to develop the temporal and spatial distribution system of precipitation over the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau,the traditional ArcGIS spatial analysis function and the variation trend of extreme precipitation in time series are analyzed.The visualization function of the trend analysis of extreme precipitation in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau is realized,and the efficiency of the work is further improved.(4)The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau from 1980 to 2010 was studied by using the spatial distribution system of extreme precipitation.It is reflected in high incidence regions of extreme precipitation events in Southeast Guizhou Tongren — Sansui — Rongjiang — the region along Yunnan and southwestern Lancang Wangmo Simao is the Jiangcheng region along the annual monthly one—day maximum rainfall.It reflects the eastern part of Guizhou province and the south is on the extreme precipitation events in high incidence area at the end of spring and the beginning of summer,and the autumn season is on extreme precipitation events mainly occurred in the northwest of Yunnan and the southwest of Yunnan.Extreme precipitation intensity maximum value is located in the eastern Guizhou Tongren region of 124.7mm/d,much higher than other regions in the same period.The minimum value of daily extreme precipitation is in the northwest of Yunnan's,with the precipitation intensity Deqin area being only 9.7mm/d.(5)From 1980 to 2010,the time series trend of extreme precipitation in Yunnan Plateau indicates that daily precipitation and daily rainfall intensity all show a rising trend in which the daily rainfall intensity rises significantly.The monthly maximum precipitation shows that the trend of growth in February is remarkable,and the trend of decline in September is bigger.The monthly maximum precipitation intensity reflects a marked increase in precipitation intensity in March,April and May,and the annual precipitation intensity of August and December showed a slow down trend.The maximum precipitation in August and December was not significant,but the maximum precipitation increased in June,July and August.The daily precipitation intensity showed an increasing trend after a sudden change in 1990,while the monthly precipitation intensity showed a large increasing trend except in August and November. |
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