The Study And Application Of Variable Coefficient Spatiotemporal Extension Model

At present,with the rapid development of information technology,the growth rate of data generated by various applications is exponential.Therefore,research on spatio-temporal data becomes more urgent,especially for spatio-temporal data with both spatial and temporal properties.This requires that an appropriate data model must be selected to model the space-time data to reflect its spatio-temporal characteristics.In practical research,the study of spatio-temporal data combines the basic properties of spatial data(spatial heterogeneity,spatial correlation)It cannot be assumed that all coefficients are constant.In view of this situation,using the extension method,this paper proposes a variable-time spatiotemporal expansion model.This dissertation respectively from two aspects of the research background and status quo of the extension method is introduced.Based on the Bayesian method and basic theory of spatial econometrics,this paper analyzes the spatial autoregressive model,combining with the extension method and has the special properties of the spatial data,spatial correlation and spatial heterogeneity)to modify the spatial autoregressive model.And join the geographical position and time to parameterize the model coefficient,The resulting model can reflect the non-stationarity and nonstationarity of the parameters.The latter model is called the variable coefficient space-time expansion model.Based on the Bayesian basic theory and Lesage's setting of the prior distribution,this model is used to estimate the parameters,and then the posterior distribution of the model parameters is deduced,and the model coefficients are derived.Perform hypothesis testing to illustrate the significance of this model.Finally with the help of a 2004-2004 data of China's provincial industrial ”three wastes” emissions,on the basis of the STIRPAT model,first do the logarithmic transformation model and second parameters in the model is extended to cover the function of location and time information.Eventually get used to explore our country population scale,economic growth,industrial structure and environmental pollution characteristics of space and time between the extension model of space and time.Research shows that: the environmental problems in China at the present stage is still grim,population size and appears inverted ”U” shaped relationship between environmental pollution.In space,from west to east of the elastic coefficient of the environmental pollution is gradually increasing scale of population,economic growth,increasing pressure on the environment.Environmental pollution is affected by economic growth,from two dimensions of time and space presents significant heterogeneity: in the time dimension,inter-provincial environmental pollution levels decrease over time,and on the spatial dimension,present east to west gradually increased trend.The above empirical analysis shows that the extension of time and space model can explain parameters covered by time and space characteristics,namely that the industrial ”three wastes” emissions of spatial and temporal heterogeneity.