| China's vast territory across 50 latitudes,including 5 climatic zones,the diverse climate and geographical conditions could be conducive to invasive species.China has become one of the most dangerous countries in the world to be invaded by invasive organisms.Biological invasion not only cause the loss of native biodiversity,ecological system collapse and other ecological environment problems,but also cause major economic losses and affect human health.As one of the most important phenomenon of global change,biological invasion is also affected by global change.Studies have shown that changes in global change,especially the temperature and precipitation caused by climate change,can change the characteristics of invasive species themselves,such as reproduction,growth,competition among species,and reduce the intrusion of ecosystems,thus affecting the potential distribution and the level of harm.Because of the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of biological invasion and global change,the impact of global change on biological invasion is bound to be spatially heterogeneous.If the time and space between the two trends are the same,this will certainly promote biological invasion.Conversely,it may reduce the occurrence and harm of biological invasion.As dangerous invasive species often have the characteristics of fulminant,devastating,abrupt,once invade,it is very difficult to control.Through risk analysis to determine the temporal and spatial dynamics of invasive species,it is the most effective way to control the invasion of harmful organisms by formulating early eradication and an early monitoring.Therefore,the paper systematically expounds the effects of climate change on invasive species,colonization,incubation,diffusion and harm,and clarifies the spatial-temporal coupling relationship between climate change distribution and species propagation and diffusion mechanism.To determine the high risk areas of future biological invasion under climate change,it is the latest development trend of invasive biology research to develop effective early warning measures to control the invasion and diffusion of invasive species.In recent years,the Solanum rostratum,Solanum elaeagnifolium,Solanum carolinense and Solanum sarrachiodes are the 4 kinds of quarantine poisonous invasive plants in China,which have spread in some areas and caused harm to the invasive area.It is urgent to ascertain their future invasion and proliferation dynamics in China.Based on this,the study of 4 invasive plants,such as Solanum rostratum,was studied by using the methods of species distribution model and spatial statistics.The distribution data of species and the temporal and spatial dynamics of invasion plants in China are obtained by means of systematic investigation.Then the key factors affecting species potential distribution are judged by method of VIF and principal component analysis.The fitting niche is projected into the climatic conditions of different periods in the future,and the potential distribution of 4 kinds of invasive plants in the future climate change condition is predicted.Finally,spatial statistical analysis was used to statistic the temporal and spatial dynamics of the potential distribution of species in different time periods.The present distribution of species and the temporal and spatial changes of the potential distribution were applied to delineate 4 high-risk zones for the future afferent and diffusion of invasive plants.The research results show that:(1)Using the correlation analysis,principal component analysis and VIF methods,the climate factors were selected in all factors to build the model.Annual mean temperature,temperature seasonality and average monthly precipitation in October were the major climate factors to build the models of Solanum rostratum,Solanum elaeagnifolium,Solanum carolinense and Solanum sarrachiodes.(2)The methods of AUC,Kappa,TSS and COR is used to judge the accuracy of the simulated climatic niche.The evaluation results of Solanum rostratum is highly reliable using by Kappa and Cor methods.The evaluation results of Solanum elaeagnifolium is highly reliable using by Kappa and TSS methods.The evaluation results of Solanum carolinense is highly reliable using by Kappa and AUC methods.The evaluation results of Solanum sarrachiodes is highly feasible using by AUC and TSS methods.(3)The climatic conditions projected by the simulated climatic niche to different time in the future predicted the suitable zones of 4 kinds of invasive plants in our country at present and at different periods in the future.The comparative analysis of the potential distribution at different time shows that the area of 4 invasive plants in the future climatic conditions will be increasing.But the change trend of area and space in different time and space are different.In space,compared with the present,the next 4 invasive plants in China are in the region as a whole to the high latitude(north),low longitude(westward)and high-altitude movement.There are differences in the distances of different species.A comprehensive comparison of the waiting to eruptible period of 4 invasive plantsand the climate adaptability of the first invasive land can determine the climate adaptability of the species in the land can affect the latent time of the species.Future climate change may cause the outbreak of the populations that has been introduced into the future potential distribution.The distribution of 4 kinds of invasive plants in China and the changing trend of the potential distribution under the climate change were synthesized.The present distribution of Solanum rostratum is basically located in the center of the potential distribution.The future of Solanum rostratum will continue to spread northward and southward.The climate warming will promote the proliferation of the population of the Solanum sarrachiodes in the period of the waiting to eruptible period in Liaoning Province,and the potential distribution of the population in Henan and Xinjiang will continue to expand the surrounding area.The present distribution area of Solanum carolinense in North America will become an adaptive distribution in the future.Therefore,the future diffusion trend of the invasive population in Zhejiang Province should be concerned about the spread of the region to the high altitude.But there is a high risk that the new introduction of the Solanum carolinense should be paid attention to.Solanum elaeagnifolium has invaded the eastern fringe of its potential distribution.We should focus on its northward and westward diffusion trends in the future.In a word,the research objects of this study are 4 kinds of invasive plants in different regions of our country at different time.Through the systematic study of its spatial and temporal diffusion and its future climate conditions of the dynamic changes in the region,we could make sure the impact of climate change on invasion and the future spread.Finally,we could delimit the future focus on management of the region.The results can provide a basis for the development of an early monitoring and eradication program.The research idea is useful for the study of other similar invasive plants.It would be of great significance to the management of invasion and diffusing species in similar areas. |
PDF Full Text Request