BP Neural Network Analysis Of Hui Xian Baiquan Spring Flow Dynamic

The city of Huixian has a large and famous karst spring-Baiquan.It is famous for its extraordinary view of the outcropped groundwater,became a famous landscape tourism aera.According to the hydrogeological conditions of Baiquan spring,it is divided into recharge area,discharge area and storage area.(1)According to the dynamic analysis of the Baiquan spring flow from 1964 to 1978,Baiquan spring flow mainly affected by the precipitation of the first two months,it shows that spring water flow lag precipitation peak for two months;the precipitation recharging years of the karst water in the spring area is about 2 years,it is that the spring flow affected by the monthly precipitation of the year and the previous year.During this period,Baiquan spring flow is mainly affected by precipitation,less impact on exploiting,that basically represented the dynamic characteristics in natural state.(2)Using stepwise regression analysis to calculate the dynamic of Baiquan spring flow from 1964-1978,it can be seen that the spring flow of the year is mainly affected by the precipitation of previous year,the spring flow of the month is mainly afftected by the precipitation and the spring flow of the previous month and the precipitation of the month,the stepwise regression of the monthly prediction model and the annual prediction model of the Baiquan spring flow is established in the natural state.(3)Accorting to the main influencial factor of the spring flow decided by stepwise regression analysis,established the BP neural network of annual model and the monthly model of Baiquan spring flow in natural state.The fitting effected of the two models are good,the prediction results are similar,and the error is small,and the fitting effect of BP neural network is better than that of stepwise regression model.(4)Based on prediction results of two models to analysis the frequency of spring flow,and evaluated exploitation of the karst water of spring region resources,and it can provide the basis of scientific and rationally utilized exploitation the karst groundwater of the Baiquan spring region and the recovery of Baquan.