Stability Analysis And Prediction Reserch Of 2~# Landslide In Xiaolangdi Reservoir Region

Since the completion of the Xiaolangdi Multi-purpose Project,with the changes in the water level of the reservoir due to water adjustment,sand adjustment,and flood regulation and peak adjustment,the deformation of the bank slope has been exacerbated,and the front of the 2#landslide in the Xiaolangdi Reservoir has been slid into the reservoir.The deformation of the trailing edge has gradually become flat in recent years,but it is still slowly deforming.Because the landslide of No.2 landslide is close to the dam,once a slide occurs,it will bring about great disasters.Therefore,the No.2 landslide body in the Xiaolangdi Reservoir area is studied.Firstly,the stability of the landslide body is analyzed by using the limit equilibrium method;then the deformation characteristics of the landslide body are studied by using three-dimensional numerical simulation,and the deformation trend is determined by combining the deformation monitoring data of the landslide body;finally,the deformation and deformation trend of the landslide body are predicted.The main research contents and achievements are as follows:Using Geo-studio software,the stability of 2~#landslide body was analyzed using four different limit equilibrium calculation methods,and the safety factor under different working conditions was obtained.The results show that the stability of the landslide at this stage is stable under natural and rainfall conditions;it is in an unstable state under earthquake conditions of 7 degrees and under earthquake and rainfall conditions.Based on Midas's three-dimensional finite element analysis software,a 3D geomechanical calculation model for the 2~#landslide was established.According to the different load combinations,the calculation results of the landslide body under different working conditions were obtained.The numerical calculation results show that the deformation of the landslide body is small,and the calculated results are basically consistent with the actual deformation of the landslide body,which is consistent with the stability analysis results obtained by the limit equilibrium method.Summarizing the distribution law of landslide monitoring data,combined with the results of landslide stability analysis,it is initially determined that the landslide body is in a slow deformation stage,and the deformation trend is basically stable.The data fitting method and the grey theory GM(1,1)model were used to predict the deformation and deformation trend of the landslide body.The fitting correlation coefficient is good,and the grey model has good prediction accuracy.The prediction value is far less than the warning value of the monitoring design.The prediction results show that the landslide body tends to be slowly deformed toward the reservoir area,and gradually converges,and the landslide body is in a stable state as a whole.