| Groundwater is an important source of water supply for Daming,which has made important contributions to the development of local economy and society.However,because of the overexploitation of groundwater for many years,the mineralization of the regional groundwater level has risen continuously,and some environmental geological problems have been caused,which threaten the growth of crops,the safety of the residents and the safety of water,which has aroused general concern.Therefore,it is necessary to study the mineralization degree of Daming County,which is of great significance for the sustainable development and utilization of groundwater resources in the future.In this paper,by collecting and arranging relevant data in the study area,we selected three monitoring wells in the study area based on hydrogeological conditions and water resources development and utilization conditions in Daming County,including Houhaizi,Huzhuang,and Triangle Shop monitoring wells,The data of groundwater salinity from 2010 to 2015 were brought into the GM(1,1)model to fit,the fitted curve of the model was plotted,and the fit of the measured value and the fitted curve was determined(ie,Relative error).Predictive values of salinity from 2016 to 2020 are predicted from the fitted curve.Then,the groundwater salinity,groundwater level,production,and rainfall data from 2010 to 2015 were brought into the GM(1,N)model for fitting.The fitted curve of the model was plotted,and the measured value was determined.The degree of fit to the fitted curve,while predicting the predicted value of salinity from 2016 to 2020 through the fitted curve.The comparison between the fit of the two models during the actual measurement period and the predicted results during the forecast period was compared.It is concluded that the position of the Houhaizi monitoring well,the average error simulated by the GM(1,1)model is 0.68%,the average error simulated by the GM(1,N)model is-0.56%;and at the Huzhuang monitoring well location,the average error simulated by the GM(1,1)model is 2.475%,the average error simulated by the GM(1,N)model is-0.225%;and at the Sanjiaodian monitoring well location,the average error simulated by the GM(1,1)model is 5.675%,the average error simulated by the GM(1,N)model is-4.77%.By comparing the average error,we can see that the simulation results of GM(1,N)model are better than those of GM(1,1)model.In order to compare the simulation accuracy of the two methods,the root-mean-square errors of the two methods are calculated respectively.The root-mean-square errors of Houhaizi,Huzhuang and Sanjiaodian monitoring wells simulated by the GM(1,1)model are 49.99,313.43 and 309.51 respectively,while simulated by the GM(1,N)model are 46.32,45.61 and 117.8 respectively.The analysis shows that compared with the GM(1,1)model simulation result,the GM(1,N)model simulation result has higher accuracy.Since the groundwater problem is more complex and is influenced by many factors,the GM(1,1)model only considers the impact of single factors on the salinity of groundwater.Although it can reflect the development trend and results of salinity,To be affected by multiple factors,and GM(1,N)model can reflect the impact of multiple independent variables on the dependent variable.And the GM(1,N)model has a good fitting effect.The GM(1,N)model is more accurate than the GM(1,1)model and the prediction result is more accurate.Using the GM(1,N)model to predict the degree of mineralization of groundwater shows that the degree of mineralization in Daming County is increasing year by year,indicating that Daming County has been in a state of scarce water resources,and groundwater has led to a large amount of over-exploitation of groundwater.The degree of mineralization has increased year by year,and the area of agricultural land with high salinity has increased significantly.It provides a theoretical basis for the rational development and utilization of water resources in Daming County. |
PDF Full Text Request