Research On The Rating Factor Of Automobile Insurance Based On GLM And Its Extended Model

As the price of motor vehicle insurance product,the rates should act up to the law of value and the law of supply,which from the perspective of economics;the price should be different among customers because of the risk level which out of fairness.Now,the unbalance between premium and compensation are criticized by all,they seemed only related to the caluses,in fact,it reflects the mismatching between the premium and the cost of compensate.The price is on the control of our government,the man factor and the environment factor are always been neglected,the classification of risk is too rough,these all lead to the failure of market and the unbalance premium between people.In order to guarantee the fair and efficiency in the market,the supervision organization conduct the reform of motor vehicle insurance twice from Jun 2015 to Jun 2017.As to promote to form a harmonious market competition structure,the blossom of our mortor vehicle insurance and make the price reasonable,this paper will combine a group of stata and ratemaking models which are used widely in the international to do some research on the choice of risk factor in the ratemaking,and hope to propose some suggestion to the later reformation and improvement of ratemaking models.This article carry out by combined qualitative and quantitative analysis methods.First,this article analyze the factor which influence the ratemaking,the car,human,surroundings respectively have the significance to the ratemaking,and introduce the zero integer ratio factor under the policy;Second,this paper analyze the drawback of each traditional models first,and introuduce the generalized linear model's basic theory,the GLM has it's distinctive strength;Zero-inflated model,as the extended model of GLM,which can be better to cater the claim frequncey data that appear many zero in the reality,this usually because of the subjective and objective factors like NCD coefficient,deductible excess;After the selection of ratemaking factor based on GLM,also uses the zero-inflated models to select the ratemaking factor.Finally,combined all the results of theoretical and empirical analysis in this paper,some suggestion about the development of motor vehicle insurance,the marketlization reforms of vehicle insurance clauses and rates,the implemention of rate has been proposed.