Research And Analysis Of GDP In Shandong Province Based On Time Series Model

Shandong as one of the province with large population and economy,ranked the third place in GDP in several years,but a large gap still exists,compared with the first,Guangdong,and the second,Jiangsu.The large popularity was the main reason that made GPD per capita of Shandong ranked unsatisfactory.The fourth and fifth province in GPD rank,Zhejiang and Henan,showed a mighty catch-up momentum.Henan had already excessed Shandong in economic growth rate,meanwhile,Zhejiang had leveled off.The circumstance of economy development in Shandong is not optimistic,whose modes are in badly need of optimization and adjustment with positive measures.GDP(Gross Domestic Product)is a core indicator to measure the economic development situation of a country.Similarly,gross regional domestic product is an important indicator to measure the economic development situation of a region.In this paper,the research contents was centred on GDP of Shandong province.We introduced theories of a time sequence model-ARIMA model,and then built the ARIMA model based on annual data of GDP of Shandong.We analyzed the trends of economic development via model and made a short-time prediction for GDP of Shandong,which government work could refer to.As the social economy developed quickly and healthily,the proportion of GDP of Shandong province changed dramatically.The output of primary industry decreased obviously but the proportion of secondary and tertiary industry improved a lot,which indicated the rapid development of secondary and tertiary industry and the efficient optimization of industrial.The tertiary industry of Shandong still has great potential for further development,compared with developed countries and regions.For all of the three main industries,the internal optimization and upgrade were essential.Above all,in this paper,we built VAR model of the three main industries of Shandong.The two selected relevant factors were employment figure and tax revenue corresponding to the three main industries.The innovation point of this paper was that we selected the GDP of the three main industries as data for modeling and research,and introduced several endogenous variables in VAR model,which was different from other researching models including only two variables.Then we made Granger causality test,impulse response function(IRF)analysis and variance decomposition analysis base on our VAR model,on the purpose of investigating the Granger causality among the variables in each models,analyzing dynamic influence relation between several endogenous variables,and finding out the relational degree and impact degree of each variable.Based on the research above,we obtained the interactive relationship between output of three main industries and corresponding employment figure and tax revenue.We considered that if government wants a remarkable progress of our province,it should improve the ability of scientific innovation and the quality of employed population,as well as improve the ability of tertiary industry absorbing employed population.Then,accelerates the progress of transforming tertiary industry to dominant industry,thus mobilizes economy of Shandong develop quickly and healthily.