| Objective:Extractingthe basic information of tuberculosis in Hunan province from 2010 to 2014 and using a series of mathematical theory,Pulmonary Tuberculosis Transmission Model in Hunan Province was constructed.The basic regeneration number,disease-free equilibrium point and endemic disease balance point of tuberculosis transmission model in Hunan were obtained,providing a scientific basis for tuberculosis interventions in Hunan Province.Methods:Extracting tuberculosis data from Hunan Province,based on the basic model of tuberculosis transmission in the population model study of infectious diseases,combined with the characteristics of tuberculosis transmission in Hunan Province,tuberculosis transmission model in Hunan were obtained.The residual squares and least squares were used to estimate,to natural mortality rate of modelin unit time???,the probability rate of susceptibility to susceptibility in unit time???,probability rate of infection in the unit of time????,probability rate of latency in unit time???,treatment rate of patients'taking?p?,patients'mortality rate of not taking to treatment?d2?,the probability of self-healing of patients of not taking to treatment in the unit time???,self-healing rate of lurkers?r1?,cure rate of treating patients?r2?,mortality rate of patients of taking treatment?d1?.The results of parameter estimation were evaluated by chi-square goodness test.The second generation matrix method was used to calculate the basic regeneration number of tuberculosis basic transmission model in Hunan.Lyapunov Stability Theorem was used to Calculate the Disease-free Balance of the Basic Model of Tuberculosis in Hunan.Lyapunov stability theorem and the Rolls-Helwitz criterion were used to calculate the endemic balance of tuberculosis basic transmission model in Hunan.Results:Basic transmission model of tuberculosis in Hunan was constructed.Estimated result of natural mortality rate of modelin unit time???was 0.000019.Estimated result of the probability rate of susceptibility to susceptibility in unit time???was 0.0027.Estimated result of the probability rate of infection in the unit of time????was 0.00075.Estimated result of probability rate of latency in unit time???was0.00018.Estimated result of treatment rate of patients'taking?p?was 0.53.Estimated result of patients'mortality rate of not taking to treatment?d2?was 0.000054.Estimated result of the probability of self-healing of patients of not taking to treatment in the unit time???was 0.0000060.Estimated result of self-healing rate of lurkers?r1?was0.00084.Estimated result of cure rate of treating patients?r2?was 0.00318.Estimated result of mortality rate of patients of taking treatment?d1?was 0.0000068.The test of the goodness of the chi-square was considered to be accurate and effective.The basic transmission number of regeneration,disease-free balanceof tuberculosis model in Hunan?susceptible person,lurkers,tuberculosis patients of not taking the treatment,tuberculosispatientsoftakingthetreatment,healedpatients?,Endemic balance?susceptible person,lurkers,tuberculosis patients of not taking the treatment,tuberculosis patients of taking the treatment,healed patients?was 9.87,?66909999,0,0,0,0?,?3 9496869,19119954,34076,45802,8198563?.Conclusion:Byanalysis of Tuberculosis Model in Hunan,the current stable tuberculosis in Hunan was found in the endemic disease balance point.It was found thatthe basic number of reproduction of the current basic transmission model of tuberculosis in Hunan was 9.87.In theory,tuberculosis in Hunan could not disappear.According to the basic regeneration model of tuberculosis in Hunan,it was found thattuberculosis would disappear gradually when the tuberculosis infection rate increased to 85.2%or more. |
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