| Issued by the World Health Organization the 2015 global road safety status report said that although this year the road safety is improved somewhat,7 9 countries the absolute number of deaths has decreased,but the death toll in 68 countries still appear to be increased.Car ownership in China accounted for only 2%of the world total vehicle,traffic accidents accounted for the ratio has reached 20%,in recent years China traffic accident occurred in the total number of,death toll and economic loss Although decreasing year by year,but the total is still large,the consequences also not allows to ignore.Insurance companies to implement the reward system in the insurance premium,not only can effectively reduce the occurrence of micro payment,reduce payment costs and management costs of insurance,but also to encourage drivers driving safety,reduce accidents.The insurance company claim refers to a kind of experience of pricing methods for the one or more claims records of the insured insurance premium income,and offer premium discount on any claim records of the insured,the corresponding is NCD coefficient table of the insurance company.Because of this coefficient table is directly related to the insured insurance premium,the premium income as the main source of income of the insurer,for a continuous operation of insurance companies the importance of research on the premium pricing as can be imagined,so the insurance company and the indemnity for the coefficient has been the academic focus.The NCD coefficient only depends on the level and the number of years occurred last year of the accident,ignoring the insured’s age,gender and age of the vehicle,a year of claim,which obviously can not fully describe the risk of the insured.Therefore,this paper optimizes the method,consideration of age,gender,age of the vehicle in the regression of the number of claims,and claims as an important factor to estimate another effect of loss,on the number of claims and claims the theory of distribution is detailed,analyzed the rigorous empirical data of the insurance company on my hand,respectively,find the best description of the claim number,multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial distribution,and the optimal claims distribution Pareto distribution.To obtain the joint distribution function,using the excellent characteristics of Copula connection function,through the method of discrete Copual Oliver continuously,using the R language of the Copula package,and find the best Gumbel Copula connection function.Finally,according to the joint probability density function of the solution is given in this paper,considering the number of claims and claims the loss estimates,and only consider the claim amount of the loss value of contrast and only considering the actual loss of the number of claims,using the joint distribution function of the estimated loss accord with the current situation;according to the joint distribution function well,NCD transfer coefficient matrix,this paper provides an idea claimdiscount coefficient table for future research. |
