Researched On The Optimization Of BT Debt Risk Control Based On System Dynamics

Although the application of BT financing mode has solved the problem of capital shortage for local infrastructure construction,it has prompted a significant surge in the scale of BT debt and further aggravated the debt risk of local governments.In order to control the government debt risk,our country has taken a series of measures to solve the problems.However,due to the complexity and covertness of BT debt,it is much difficult to control for the risks.In order to effectively control the BT debt risk,it is necessary to measure the value of the risk.At present,the studies on BT debt risk mainly focus on the identification of BT debt risk factors and the construction of index system Fewresearches have been conducted on the measurement of BT debt risk.On the basis energy release theory,the model of BT debt risk system will be built by System Dynamics.First of all,I analyze the progress of BT debt related research,the development of system dynamics and then elaborate the basic methods and applications of System Dynamics.These lay the foundation for the construction of BT debt risk model.Secondly,on the basis of discussing the interrelationship between the factors of the BT debt risk,I draw the system of causality diagram and stockflow chart of BT debt risk by VensimPLE software.Finally,I take Chongqing as an example to simulate the risk of BT debt and analyze the sensitivity from the four aspects of interest rate,construction cost,socio-economic development and population level.And then put forward the optimization measures of BT debt risk control.The main conclusions from the research are as follows:(1)The risk of BT debt in Chongqing Municipality from 2006 to 2015 fluctuated little and its value is between 0.095~0.312.As a whole while,the risk is controllable.(2)Among the four factors of interest rate,construction cost,socio-economic development and population,the cost of construction is the most sensitive factor,followed by interest rate;the impact of land policy and tax policy is small,while the investment in fixed assets and population policy have little effect on BT debt risk.(3)The risk optimization measures mainly include four aspects:(1)rationally control the construction cost to reduce the risk of BT debt;(2)predict the trend of interest rate changes to determine a reasonable rate of return on investment;(3)adopt reasonable land policies to enhance the ability of BT debt repayment;(4)adopt a reasonable tax policy to enhance BT debt repayment ability.This study introduces system dynamics and risk energy into the study of BT debt risk,which provides a reference and standard for risk measurement of government-paid PPP project.