Modeling And Simulating On Market Diffusion Of Innovation Products Based On Multi-agent

In recent years,the competition of the homothetic innovative products is becoming more and more intense and the innovative products have become the core elements for modern enterprises to exist in the market.Innovative products usually have distinctive characteristics.Taking Apple Corp as an example,its iPhone products have achieved great success in the market by their excellent innovation and have changed the way of people's life to some extent.However,innovative products can truly reflect their economic and social values only when they are widely applied and promoted,so nowadays it is widely believed that "diffusion is more important than innovation".The consumers' decision-making and buying process is not only related to its own factors,but also influenced by social factors.Therefore,this thesis analyzes consumers' heterogeneity and differences,and explores the impact of social factors for consumer purchasing decisions through the investigation of the consumers' basic situation from individual consumer.Utilizing the principle of Multi-Agent and hybrid modeling technology,the influence factors of consumers' purchase decision and predict of diffusion trend is simulated,and then according to the research results put forward the countermeasure and suggestion of enterprise.The details are as follows:Firstly,based on the competitive innovation product,this thesis introduces the research object,the research background,purpose and significance.The research contents,methods and technical routes are given for the problems in the current theoretical research and practical application.On this basis,the basic theoretical knowledge and research progress are summarized,including Bass theory model,L-V theory model and consumer purchase decision theory model,and then put forward Multi-Agent technology to better capture the consumers' purchase decision-making behavior as theoretical basis of the research.Secondly,based on the model hypothesis,modeling and simulation of Agent is proposed.The consumers' Agent model is constructed through consumer preference value,aversion value and innovation product value.The situation rule base is defined by internal and external influence factors.An interaction management agent is designed to manage the specific Information and behavioral interaction.Finally,Anylogic simulation software can design and realize simulation,including description of consumers' purchase decision process from the micro-level and show of competition relationship between enterprises from a macro-level,so as to build a hybrid model;On the basis of this,two kinds of situation rules are respectively obtained that is the micro-consumers' purchase decision-making behavior and macro emergence phenomena,which proposes corresponding countermeasures and management enlightenment.Further through case analysis,the research shows that the simulation sales volume basically coincides with the actual sales volume.The model achieves ideal simulation effect and verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the model & method in order to provide valuable theoretical basis and decision-making reference for managers of enterprise.