Research On The Prediction Of Tourist Attractions Popularity Based On The Comfort Index

As people's living standards improve,more and more people regard tourism as a part of their life.They actively go to tourist attractions.However,every scenic spot has its own carrying capacity.When the number of scenic spots reaches a certain number,it will bring uncomfortable experience to tourists.How to carry out the rational distribution of tourist attractions is one of the important issues that tourism industry needs to solve today.The thesis will predict the popularity of tourist attractions based on the comfort index.The thesis designs the thermal prediction system of tourist attractions based on the comfort index and provides tourists with information about the comfort index and the forecast heat of scenic spots.Through the data provided by the system,tourists can choose the scenic spot with suitable comfort to play,so that relieve the pressure of tourist attractions and realize reasonable shunt.The main research work of the thesis is as follows:1.In this thesis,the main forecasting methods are investigated,And combined with the characteristics of tourism data,the thesis has preliminarily determined the method that the tourism forecasting system should use is the grey system model or the neural network model.2.This thesis analyzes the tourism data and obtains the tourist data by writing crawler program,writing data interface,etc.,and preprocessing the tourism data.3.In this thesis,the comfort index of human body and sightseeing is studied and analyzed.Based on the index definition and baidu index definition,the peripheral comfort index of the scenic spot is proposed.4.The thesis analysis the prediction effect of the gray prediction model,BP neural network model and fusion of comfort index of BP neural network model,and finally,the prediction algorithm that the system should adopt is determined.5.This thesis describes the thermal forecasting system of tourist attractions based on comfort index in detail.The thesis describes the system requirements,system design,module design and database design.Finally,the system is used to assist enterprise decision-making and help tourists choose attractions.