Research On The Usefulness Of Forward-looking Information Disclosure Of Real Estate Listed Companies

With the continuous development of China’s capital market,the operation mode of Listed Companies in various industries is more and more diversified.The traditional information disclosure regulation can not meet the needs of information users anymore.In 2002,China introduced the MD&A system as a supplement to mandatory information disclosure,requiring all listed companies to disclose and standardize the forward-looking information about the future development of the company.It can be seen that the prospective information is more valuable to the market demand than the historical financial information.But in practice,forward-looking information supply in quality and quantity aspects has far can not meet the needs of investors,mainly reflected in two aspects: first,due to the special nature of the industry,the general disclosure rules can not be fully applicable to all industries,so that the value of information disclosure has been weakened;Second,the operating status and management level of the listed companies in the same industry are uneven,which leads to the obvious difference in the quality of the prospective information disclosure.The real estate industry is different from most manufacturing industries in China.Its special business cycle and accounting make the effectiveness of the general disclosure rule greatly reduced,and the traditional accounting information can not accurately reflect the operation of the listed company.It isparticularly necessary to find more reliable prospective indicators to mitigate such problems.Therefore,this paper is based on providing standardized suggestions for forward-looking information disclosure of real estate listed companies,so that investors can observe the investment decisions of enterprises through the forward-looking information related to the company’s future development strategy,and observe the industry dynamics.This paper takes Vanke as an example to study the usefulness of prospective information disclosure in real estate listed companies.First,we explain the new concept of real estate forward-looking information,and explain from multiple perspectives that the value of forward-looking information is higher than that of traditional financial information in real estate industry.Considering that the real estate business cycle is long,the paper divides three kinds of forward-looking information indicators and their economic significance according to different time gradients.Secondly,to examine including Vanke Real estate listed companies disclosure,select one of the 28 real estate companies,according to the disclosure of several forward-looking indicators scoring,horizontal comparison,results show that the extent of information disclosure Vanke is the highest,plays an exemplary role in the industry.This is also the basis for this article to choose Vanke as the research object.Then,manual collection of forward-looking information from2003 to 2016 is collected by hand,and the evolution process of its longitudinal information disclosure is analyzed.Finally,according to the definition anddivision of real estate prospective information,we select specific forward-looking indicators to test the usefulness of forward-looking information,including Vanke’s time gradient,forward-looking indicators and industry data trend charts.And the pilot test of the new land reserve and new area data on the housing price in Shanghai region.The results show that the new land reserve has a three-month lead period for the change of future house prices.That is,under certain conditions,the Vanke’s index can predict regional house prices.But the other prospective index,the new area,has not passed the significant test in the demonstration,so the index has no obvious leading role on the change of house price.Based on the characteristics of the development of the real estate industry and following the rules and processes of real estate development,this paper puts forward effective suggestions for the development of the special forward-looking information disclosure mechanism in the real estate industry.