Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning Model Of Listed Companies On GEM

The "GEM Listing Rules"(Revised Edition)was introduced in 2012.It was the first time to standardize the delisting rules of the GEM listed companies.In 2014,the Shenzhen stock exchange revised the "GEM Listing Rules" again,which improved the delisting system,increased the compulsory delisting and so on,so that many listed companies with financial difficulties faced the risk of suspended listing and even delisting.The purpose of the establishment of GEM is to encourage technological innovation and solve the financing difficulties of high-tech enterprises.Most of the current research takes the main board listed companies as the research object,but as a new plate,the development of the GEM is not mature,and the research on it has not been deeply studied.In order to keep the growth of the GEM market in China,it is imminent to design a simple and practical financial crisis early warning model for the enterprise.First of all,the paper reviews the literature from 3 aspects: concept study,index system research and model research,and then expounds the related theories.On the basis of considering the characteristics of the listed companies,we propose a new definition standard of financial crisis for the listed companies on GEM:(1)Audited net profit for two consecutive fiscal years is negative;(2)The most recent fiscal year end net assets is negative;(3)The latest audit report is a non-standard financial report;(4)Operating profit growth rate is negative for three consecutive years.On the basis of the previous index system,this paper added new indicators reflecting the risk level,national policy,R&D and innovation capabilities,and senior management characteristics of listed companies on GEM,and constructed a 48-variable GEM financial crisis warning indicator system.Then,on the basis of the index system containing 48 variables,9principal components are extracted by principal component analysis,and the comprehensive scoring financial crisis early-warning model based on the wal scoring method is designed,and 4financial crisis early-warning intervals are set up.Finally,this paper selects 1 enterprises from 4financial crisis warning intervals to conduct case studies.Through 9 levels of detailed analysis,it verifies the reliability of the comprehensive score financial crisis early warning model,and summarizes 4 general characteristics of the financial crisis warning interval.