Research On The Impact Of China's Pension Insurance And The Residents' Consumption

Pension insurance is an indispensable part of China's social security system,which is related to the national economy and people's livelihood.It is set up for ensuring the basic life of residents retired,balancing the welfare of the life cycle level and smoothing the income level in one's life.From the pension insurance established at the very beginning and developed till now,its raising pattern has entered the transition from the "pay-as-you-go" is "partial accumulation",and it plays an important role on redistributing wealth through "the wealth substitution effect" and "lead to retirement effect" relying on the society as a whole account and individual account for residents,then it causes the residents consumption level fluctuating.For the most of the general enterprise workers and families in China,the establishment of pension insurance system can alleviate the future life burden to a certain extent.So far,China has gradually formed the existing multi-level pension insurance system.In fact,compared with other developed countries,the pension insurance system in China started later,it has just developed for more than half a century.While continuous development and reform have provided people with more and more comprehensive social security.At the same time,China is inevitably going to an aging society,China's elderly dependency ratio was 8.3 percent in 1990s,while by 2016 it was 16.7 percent,and the consumption structure was undergoing significant changes.The pressure of pension transfer payments is increasing dramatically,which will further aggravate the relationship between pension insurance and household consumption.This paper provides useful references for the transition of the pension payment,the reform of the retirement system and the stimulation of the residents' consumption under the background of population aging.This paper will conduct a research and analysis based on the literature review-theoretical analysis-empirical test-research conclusions and policy recommendations.Firstly,this paper summarizes the research progress of relevant researches,lays the theoretical foundation of this paper,and provides some ideas for the innovation of this paper.Secondly based on the traditional OLG,this paper will add some related variables to it and builds an extended OLG model to theoretically analyze the relationship of the pension insurance and the level of consumer spending,and then make some relevant reasonable assumptions.Then,this paper will use Chinese provincial panel data from 2002-2016 to make solid effect panel regression,the results show that the influence of the urban residents disposable income for residents' consumption level is very significant and positive correlation,the endowment insurance level(including the endowment insurance coverage and endowment insurance payment rate)and the relationship between the residents'consumption level is also significantly positively related to it,this means that raising the level of development of China's endowment insurance for urban residents consumption level has an obvious role in promoting;The aging trend of population has a direct impact on the consumption level of residents,which has a certain weakening effect on the relationship between the level of endowment insurance and the consumption level of residents.Finally,this paper elaborates the conclusions and discusses the direction and suggestion of China's policy reform,mainly including the followings:1.To increase the disposable income of residents and accelerate the transformation of the consumption pattern of citizens;2.Deepen the reform and transformation of the old-age insurance system and increase the popularization of the old-age insurance system;3.Appropriately improve retirement policies and delay residents' retirement time.