| The real estate market is a special market sector that its products can be purchased as the consumer product and meanwhile it can be used as the input material for another round of production.These characteristics make the real estate market closely related to the financial market and macroeconomic fields,playing an important role in providing employment opportunities in the society,stimulating domestic demand,and promoting investment.A healthy and orderly real estate market is an important part of the harmonious and stable development of our country’s economy.However,in recent years,the prices for housing has been rising sharply and the rate of increase has far exceeded the pace of wealth accumulation by ordinary residents.Housing prices are closelyrelated to the lives of ordinary people.The rapid increase in housing prices has brought many social problems.The excessively shrinking and overheated real estate market is not conducive to the development of economy and the daily life of every micro-performing actors.If the government can rationally utilize monetary policies and other macroeconomic controls,which stabilize the housing price and real estate market within its reasonable range,it will be a continuously meaningful work.Under this background,I conducted the study of this topic.With regard to the study of the monetary policy on the real estate market,most scholars have based their research on the impact of monetary policy on housing prices,while there are few studies on other elements of the real estate market such as output and demand.In addition,previous studies have focused more on the analysis of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.I have conducted the quantitative studies on the explanatory factors and contributions that drive the fluctuation of real estate factors.This paper takes the quarterly data from 2007 to 2017 as a sample,adopts the dynamic general equilibrium model(DSGE),discusses the explanatory factors that drive the fluctuation of the prices of real estate and the output in China market through variance decomposition.Besides,I also uses the annual data from 1994 to 2017 as a sample with the vector autoregressive model(VAR)empirically analyzing the impact mechanism of representative monetary policy tools such as interest rates and money supply on real estate factors in China.The empirical results of this paper show that under the impulse response function,interest rates have a strong effect on short-term(lasting one quarter)house price regulation,but the effect is not significant in the long-term over two years.The interest rate policy regulates real estate output in the same direction as its own fluctuations.The persistence of interest rate regulation on real estate output is better than its housing price,but both have a short-term effect in less than one and a half years.Furthermore,via variance decomposition,according to the explanatory contribution,monetary policy shocks,real estate demand preference shocks and real estate sector’s technical shocks can explain the fluctuations of most house price variables;in both the long-term and short-term,monetary policy shocks can explain more than 60%of all the causes.We can see that monetary policy is the main cause of China’s housing price volatility.Similarly,according to the degree of contribution,the proportion of monetary policy in the explanation of real estate output fluctuations can explain about 26%of real estate output fluctuations after the real estate sector’s technical impact.In addition,this article empirically concludes that the impact of the regulation of the money supply on real estate market demand,supply and prices in the short term is not as significant as the interest rate does,but it is more significant than the interest rate regulation in the long run.The analysis of this article rationally uses monetary policy to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market and may give a little revelation to the effect of monetary policy. |
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