Research On The Scale And Maturity Structure Management Of China's National Debt

In recent years,China's economy has stepped into a "new normal" In response to the decline of economic growth and achieving sustainable development,the central government proposed the supply-side structural reform goal,which will be taken as the main line of macromanagement in the future.Under this requirement,to make better use of the foundation and pillar role of Public Finance in national governance,with the slowing growth of fiscal revenue and rigid structure of fiscal expenditure,the deficit rate will be increased and the positive fiscal policy will be continued.In this context,with the continuous expansion of the national debt issuance,the importance of fine debt management has become increasingly prominent.However,from the current situation of national debt management in China,there are still some problems,such as high hidden cost of issuing,unreasonable maturity structure and so on,especially in the process of intermediate target transformation of monetary policy.The problem of insufficient coordination of monetary policy is more prominent in the management of national debt.Therefore,this paper studies how to realize the coordination with monetary policy through the management of national debt scale and maturity structure.Based on the scale and maturity structure management of debt as the research object,this paper uses many analysis methods to have better understanding about the present situation of our national debt scale and maturity structure,including the coordination of debt management and monetary policy.Through improving the quantitative and price intermediary target of monetary policy is more effective.The full text is divided into five chapters,which are as follows:The first part is the introduction.In this paper,the research background and significance of the thesis are comprehensively elaborated,and the relevant research results at home and abroad are also sorted out,then the main research contents and methods of the thesis are discussed.The second part is the theoretical basis of policy coordination with national debt management.It mainly summarizes the function theory and management of national debt,the coordination theory of fiscal policy and monetary policy,and analyzes the theoretical basis of national debt management in the transmission process of monetary policy.The third part is the analysis of the current situation and problems of the coordination between national debt management and monetary policy.This chapter firstly combs the scale,structure and management of China's current national debt,and discusses the multi-mediation objectives and operational practices in the implementation of monetary policy.Combined with the realistic background of the transition from quantitative monetary policy to interest-rate monetary policy,this paper puts forward that the focal point of the coordination between national debt and monetary policy should be focused on the two aspects,one is the influence of the size and structure of national debt issuance on the money supply.,and the other one is raising the benchmark interest rate of treasury bonds to the central bank monetary policy transmission efficiency.,At the same time,the two aspects of the mechanism of the role are deeply elaborated.Secondly,from the four management stages of issuing,using,circulating and repaying the national debt,the paper discusses the influence of the scale and term structure of the national debt on the money supply.By adopting structural vector autoregressive model(SVAR)By analyzing the influence of treasury bond issuance on money supply,the empirical test shows that,under the objective of quantitative monetary policy intermediation,the effect of issuing scale and term structure of national debt on money supply is not significant.This may be related to the implementation of open market operations by central banks to smooth market volatility.But there is a positive correlation between the growth of national debt balance and the money supply,so in the future,in the coordination of quantitative monetary policy,the focus of treasury bonds management should be to ensure the appropriate duration of national debt scale,to protect the central bank open market operation needs.Finally,starting from the function of Treasury bond yield curve in monetary policy transmission mechanism,the paper studies the effect of the scale and term structure of national debt on the efficiency of monetary policy transmission.The threshold time series analysis method is used to judge and analyze the rationality of the term structure of the current national debt.The empirical results show that in the aspect of coordination with the interest rate monetary policy,the scale and term structure of national debt has significant threshold effect in the process of policy interest rate transferring to market interest rate.In the process of national debt scale and term management,the supply level of short and medium term bonds should be increased,and the higher level of the balance of national debt should be raised and maintained,which will help to improve the yield curve of national debt and to promote the effective transmission of interest rate policy in the implementation of monetary policy.The fourth part is the international experience of national debt management.Through the introduction and analysis of the developed countries in the national debt management,there are good ways to improve the management of treasury bonds to provide experience for reference for our government.The fifth part is the policy suggestion of the scale and structure management of national debt.Through the study,it is found that the current national debt scale and maturity structure of our country has already had the basic function of coordinating the central bank to realize the monetary policy operation.However,compared with the management of bonds in developed countries such as the United States and Britain,there are still some problems.such as unreasonable size and structure of bond issuance,lack of liquidity in the market,imperfect financial derivatives market,etc.These factors weaken or distort the transmission efficiency of monetary policy from many channels.Therefore,it is necessary to further improve the development of national debt and related markets and improve the transmission effect of national debt in monetary policy.