Evaluation And Prediction Of Land Ecological Carrying Capacity And Countermeasures In Fuxin

The land ecological carrying capacity reflected the contradictory relationships between regional economical social development and ecological balance in a certain extent,and it has a direct effect for the land utilization structure and layout.Under current land use structure,the LECC was highly connected with and affected by the land use intensity and pollution level.And it can quantitatively reflect the ecological environment stress level from the current regional land use.There were 4 reference countermeasures to relieve the land ecological pressure,promote the social economy and develop the ecological environment in a harmonious way.In this paper,Fuxin city is the research objective,and the research was based on the interior and external literature and theory methods.It used entropy weight method.The method need to select 4 subsystems: natural subsystem?social subsystem?economic subsystem and environment subsystem,and totally 21 indexes in the 4 subsystems.This paper quantitatively analyzed the condition of the land ecological carrying capacity in Fuxin city during 2006-2015 and the results.And by using the secondary exponential smoothing method,the next 5 years tendency of Fuxin city's LECC can be predicted.According to the current ecological land management methods and the practical condition of Fuxin,the author provided some related suggestions.Though the research,the results as follow:(1)During 2006 to 2015,the land ecological carrying capacity in Fuxin had a gradually increase.It meant that the land ecological protections and the economical developments in a balance.In the parts of every subsystems of the land ecological carrying capacity,there was a rising tendency with some fluctuations in this 10 years.It meant that the land ecological managements had positive influences in every aspect.(2)By using secondary exponential smoothing method and current data to predict the LECC from 2016-2020,we could know that if based on the current tendency of land use,economy,and social development,the land ecological carrying capacity of Fuxin would decrease and it would also affect the economical developments and the sustainable developments.Due to the raising of human activities,economical developments and environmental destructions,the land ecological system was processing a big challenge;it will bring great resistance to regional development.The main reason was caused by the unreasonable use of land and resource overdevelopment;the imbalanced industrial structure was also a critical factor.It is essential for Fuxin city to focus on land ecological management with the development of economic.A better land ecological management can let fragile ecological system develop in a virtuous cycle.Based on this,there were some following suggestions:(1)optimizing the land utilization way of Fuxin city;(2)controlling the population and improving the population quality;(3)optimizing the industrial structure and improving the technological innovation;(4)raising the use ratio of ecological resources.