Comprehensive Evaluation And Forecast On Trade Quality Of Global Creative Industry

Creative industry is the emerging industry to the national economy at this stage,and has been flourishing on a global scale and has become a new impetus and pillar for the development of some countries.Creative industry has played an important role in promoting economic growth and improving employment rate.It has gradually become one of the fastest growing and most economically profitable industries.The development of trade in creative industries has promoted the development of global economy and trade.So it requires us to carry out in-depth research on the development of trade in the creative industries and promote the sustained and healthy development of the trade in the creative industries.This paper discusses the development status and future development trend of global creative industry trade from the perspective of trade quality,and observes the development status of creative industry trade in recent years from the perspective of trade quality.Trade quality is a comprehensive concept,can not only rely on a small number of indicators to reflect.We combined the trade quality evaluation of the relevant research theory and the characteristics of the creative industry to build its own industry trade quality evaluation indicators.Based on the establishment of comprehensive evaluation index,this paper uses the multi-index panel data to evaluate the trade quality of the creative industry and analyzes the trade quality coefficient of each country.On the basis of the comprehensive evaluation index,to predict the next eight years quality of trade development.Based on the entropy TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method,the trade quality index of each country's creative industry was calculated based on the data in creative industry trade of 24 major countries from 2003 to 2012,and the present situation of the development of the trade quality was analyzed.Finally,the gray forecast GM(1,1)and Markov combination model are used to forecast the development trend of the creative industry trade quality in 2013-2020.At the same time,it analyzes the development of the quality of trade in China's creative industries,compares and analyzes the experiences of creative industries in different countries,and provides relevant basis for China to better solve the trade development of creative industries.