Research On Equipment Life Cycle Cost Risk Assessment Based On FAHP

Under our new international military security pressure,the technology content and complexity of modern equipment continues to improve,cost risks at all stages of equipment life cycle are also facing increasing significantly,and intricate relationship exists between risk factors.But our current level of economic development determines the current defense funding is still very limited.Therefore,you need to give full attention to the life cycle cost risks faced by the equipment,reduce the cost risks and the associated loss,making effective use of defense spending for equipment.Therefore,how to effectively identify and evaluate scientific equipment life cycle cost risk,be able to provide a reliable basis for risk control,it is problem need to be researched and solved at present urgently.Firstly,the thesis research the status of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP)and equipment life cycle cost risk assessment,the related concepts of life cycle cost were defined,detailed description of the meaning and process of life cycle cost risk management,and proposed risk management model of equipment life cycle costs,so provided research idea for risk assessment of equipment life cycle cost.The current status and problems of equipment life cycle cost risk assessment were analyzed.Then,based on the research of equipment life cycle cost risk identification methods and the general theories,establish the CBS-RBS risk identification matrix,and through expert questionnaire scoring method selected key risk factors,accordingly constructed the equipment life cycle cost risk assessment system.Third,through the system introduction and comparative analysis of the common risk assessment methods and their advantages and disadvantages,combined the traditional triangular fuzzy number with Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),and based on the FAHP method constructs the equipment life cycle cost risk assessment model.Finally,for a certain type of medium-range ground surveillance radar a full life-cycle cost analysis for risk assessment examples,get the order of the importance of whole life costs risk factors,in order to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the construction of the equipment life cycle cost risk assessment model.The thesis provides methods and ideas that have a reference for the research of equipment life cycle cost risk assessment and management,can improve the accuracy of equipment life cycle cost risk identification and assessment to a certain extent,provide a more reliable basis for risk control of equipment life cycle cost,achieve a more comprehensive and scientific risk management of equipment life cycle cost.