| Due to factors such as interest rate marketization accelerating in recent years,the influence of the bank will be the simple as to adjust short-term liquidity trade business packaging and renovation,to avoid financial regulatory restrictions.Especially the small and medium-sized Banks,joint-stock Banks and other use of notes and the buying of resold the trust assets such as operation,disguised to trade money credit action and dodge the deposit-loan ratio,capital adequacy supervision indexes such as,making the trade business of commercial Banks in the latent risk which cannot be ignored,especially the banking industry in our country in 2013 twice "money shortage" event fully exposed the trade business risk hidden trouble.In addition,the domestic scholars research on trade business is basically focused on trade business in our country's development and its influence to the financial stability(systemic risk)level,and the lack of trade business of bank risk,liquidity and credit risk)impact study,but also ignores the macroeconomic policy(especially the expansionary monetary policy)the effect of this effect,at the same time,with the recent financial regulation,trade business as tools to avoid banking supervision by the major impact,so the upgrading of financial regulation policies on interbank business impact on Banks' risk and will cause what kind of impact? What about the impact of monetary policy and financial regulation on this effect? Obviously it's worth further exploring.Is adopted in this paper,based on the 2008-2008,100 annual panel data of commercial Banks in our country,the bank's risk can be divided into liquidity risk and credit risk,on the basis of exploring the trade business as well as the monetary policy effect trade business impact on bank risk,liquidity risk and credit risk);At the same time,the impact of the strong regulation on the above effects is studied from the perspective of financial regulation.Then we further studied the impact of the expansion of the interbank business on the profit of commercial Banks and the impact on the supply of credit to the real enterprises.In addition,the paper also USES a variety of counterfactual methods,such as breakpoint regression,to evaluate the effect of the policy more accurately.Findings:(1)the expansion of trade business has indeed increased risk,liquidity risk and credit risk of commercial bank,and the effect in the local commercial bank performance is more obvious,at the same time,monetary policy has obvious effects to this role.(2)from the perspective of financial regulations,the study found that the strengthening of financial supervision through intensified trade business shrinking did not significantly reduce the risk of commercial Banks,especially the commercial bank liquidity risk has increased significantly;In particular,the impact of interbank business on the risk of commercial Banks is greater(indirect channels)by increasing the scale of the interbank business caused by the tightening of monetary policy.These conclusions are also confirmed by the combination of multiple counterfactual methods(such as the timing of early policy implementation)and breakpoint regression methods.(3)Based on financial regulation cause endogenous risk exploration,also found that financial regulation in the cause the trade scale at the same time,also contributed to the commercial Banks through outsourcing disguised with riskier assets such as leveraged investment long-term bonds,leading to the liquidity risk and credit risk of commercial Banks is not significantly reduced.(4)Based on the research of the Angle and the real economy further found that the expansion of trade business to have a positive impact on bank profits,but did not significantly increase the supply of credit entity enterprise,only worsen the credit mismatch,and the effect in different phases of macro situation there are significant differences.In addition,the methods of robustness test estimation from macroscopic view and structure VAR also confirm the above conclusion. |
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