Research On Price Risk Management Of Gold Product In Zhaojin Mining Industry

With the depth adjustment of the world economy,the spot price of gold fell down nearly 38% compared to the peak since 2008.Gold production enterprises is difficult to improve the level of corporate profits through to reduce costs significantly.Therefore,it is of practical significance to study the risk of gold price fluctuation to gold production enterprises and to put forward some suggestions to avoid risk.Zhaojin Mining Industry is the leading gold producer and the largest gold smelter in China.The annual gold production accounts for 1/10 of the total gold production.Zhaojin has identified the risk of the price fluctuation of gold products,and the analysis of the price trend of gold and the risk of the price fluctuation of gold products are evaluated only by the experience of the salesmen and management staff,and using gold forward contracts to circumvent the risk is a single way.Using the method of Value at Risk,we calculated the theoretical profit of gold production from 2009 to 2016 and determined the degree of risk.The result is that in 2013-2016 years,the risk degree of gold price is high,and the risk is low in 2009-2011 years,there is no risk in 2012.In this paper,a complex network model is used to predict the degree of the company's price risk,which is essentially a prediction of the price of gold.According to the topological properties of complex networks,it was found that risk degree formed by five consecutive days without risk and five consecutive days with high risk as the leading state of two major camps,the two states are overdue to 5 days of low risk.The network is divided into 5 societies through community depth measurement,which clearly shows all possible paths of excessive risk.Based on the gold price data in January 2017,the conclusion is that the risk faced by the company in 2017 is low and occasionally high,which is consistent with the actual situation.Depending on the degree of risk as well as the actual production and operation of Zhaojin Mining Industry,from there aspects to reduce the price of gold spot price fluctuation bring to the company risk,respectively,perfecting the risk management system,improving the level of gold prices forecast and riching varieties of hedging.