Study And Implementation Of Local Public Finance Budget Income Forecasting

Public budget income,which refers to that the government use the national political power to raise tax revenue(main body)as the social status manager.It is mainly used to protect an improve people’s livelihood,maintain the normal operation of the state administrative functions and protect the national security.In order to research the local economic development and fiscal problems in the financial system,the local public budget revenue forecast research is very important.Revenue forecast on where the previous work are carried out mainly by the tax department in charge of tax revenue forecasting,and lack of the experience in local public finance.Meanwhile,the single prediction model in predicting the course of the performance is not satisfactory.Dealing these situations in this report,a business intelligence research and economic forecasting techniques in local public budget revenue forecasting.This report introduces the composition and calculation of local public budget revenues,explains the basic concepts of several economic forecasting model to predict the field,analyze the process and the needs of local public finance budget revenue forecast work,designed a sets public budget revenue forecasting method based on a combination of local forecasting model,the model consists of multiple linear regression model and the second moving average models a combination of two single forecasting model,solve some key problems encountered in the forecasting processl.On this basis,this report design to achieve a prediction program,data,Jiangsu Province,one city finance and Statistics company conducted a simulation test sample.Using the obtained test data,the writer researched two different single prediction model and predict the effect of combination forecasting mode.By contrast can be found that in combination forecasting model can indeed greatly improved forecasting model to predict the effect of a single.The results showed that the combination forecasting model is indeed an effective way to solve the local public budget revenue forecast problems.