| Export is one of the three driving forces to drive the economy,and the exchange rate influences domestic economic growth through the impact on export.during the period from July 2005 to December 2016,the RMB real effective exchange rate index has increased up to 44.44%,the RMB exchange rate’s floating range gradually has also been widen and adjustment is more elastic,which lead to more various attention to the impact of RMB exchange rate.This paper summarizes literatures of theoretical research and empirical analysis about the influence of exchange rate on export documents,found that due to empirical technology and industry division and other factors,the domestic and foreign scholars on the influence of exchange rate on export in two aspects of theoretical and empirical are no conclusion.Therefore,it is necessary to select appropriate samples and adopt robust empirical techniques to further study the impact of RMB exchange rate on China’s commodity export.When analyzing the impact of exchange rate changes and fluctuations on a country’s aggregate economic index,such as total export,a common practice is the real effective exchange rate of the national level,however,when the research perspective is based the perspective of industry level instead of the national level,the effective exchange rate at the national level cannot accurately represent the importance of trading partners in different industries.In addition,in the calculation of effective exchange rate at the national level,the price deflator can only reflect the changes in the overall price level of a country,without taking into account the various sectors of the price level has different trend.Therefore,when the impact of the industry from the perspective of exchange rate changes,shall determine the weight of each trade partner in trade industry segments,while reducing the index of the bilateral nominal exchange rate adjusted by sub sectors of the price level,and then calculate the industry-specific real effective exchange rate,which can accurately reflect the changes the international competitiveness of the export sector.Based on the theoretical analysis of exchange rate and volatility on the export effect mechanism,this paper calculates 9 industries’ industry-specific real effective exchangeRate in July 2005 to December 2016 based on HS classification.Then the ARDL model and the ECM model are used to analyze the effects of the real effective exchange rate of different industries on the export of different industries.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,although changes in the real effective exchange rate of the industry are similar,but there are big differences on ranges of changes and volatility,’at the same time,the real effective exchange rate of the industry-specific real effective exchange rate at its volatility and the national level and its volatility also has the obvious difference,therefore,using the data of t the industry-specific real effective exchange rate,the result is more credible.Secondly,in the long run,the changes in the effective exchange rate of RMB have significant impact on China’s export.Thirdly,the volatility of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has obvious influence on China’s export in a short time.It shows asymmetry and hysteresis.But in the long run,it will not disturb the steady development trend of China’s export.Fourthly,the actual income of foreign countries is also an important factor affecting China’s export.The main points of innovation in this paper are as follows:Firstly,in the calculation of the the industry-specific real effective exchange rate,the price level rather than the national level industry index reduced the price deflator to adjust the nominal bilateral between the RMB and the trading partners of currencies,effectively improve the accuracy of the calculation results of industries of RMB real effective exchange rate.Secondly,the industry-specific real effective exchange rate is applied to the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate on China’s commodity exports,which effectively improves the credibility of the empirical results.Thirdly,using the autoregressive distributed lag model,bounding tests and error correction model to analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamic relationship between variables,each variable does not need to meet the same order as the premise condition of cointegration test,so it is more applicable to the data in this paper. |
