Research On RMB Exchange Rate And Employment Of Chinese Export Enterprises

The exchange rate can be regarded as one of the core variables of the internal and external economic activities in open economy.Exchange rate fluctuation is one important source of macroeconomic uncertainty,which affects not only the international balance of payments,but also the export,price and employment of the country.According to the Mead conflict,macroeconomic and internal equilibrium is difficult to balance,and a country's macroeconomic policy objectives cannot be achieved at the same time.How to choose between the BOPs,economic development,full employment and price stability,in the current global economic recovery in the context of the slowdown,more worthy of attention and research.Since the second half of 2015 to date,the RMB exchange rate has undergone a process of devaluation and revaluation,in this year or so the RMB exchange rate changes by 8.5%,many industries have been greatly affected.At the same time,domestic economic growth stabilized,the first half of 2017 GDP growth of 6.9%per cent,manufacturing and private investment growth slightly rebounded,but the second half of the growth rate is expected to further slow.Under such internal and external conditions,the paper provides support for the relevant import and export enterprises to hedge the risks,adjust their own production and management,and the government from the macroscopic point of view of the short-term and long-term economic transformation,promote the trade industrial structure improvement and maintain the smooth operation of the economy.Based on the relevant theories of the influence of exchange rate on the employment of export industry,this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of the exchange rate influence on employment from the angle of the exchange rate signal,the price signal to promote the production factor redistribution,the higher production efficiency and the improvement of the employment quality.After using the 2000-2007 Chinese industrial enterprise data to establish the double difference model,the empirical analysis of export enterprises and non-export enterprises,low export intensity enterprises and high export intensity enterprises,low subsidy export enterprises and highly subsidized export enterprises,in 2005 "721"exchange rate system after the reform of the specific impact.The empirical results show that:Overall,the change of exchange rate has significantly affected the employment growth of China's export industry,the appreciation of exchange rate is not conducive to employment;from the result of the group,the exchange rate change has a significant impact on the export enterprises,and increases with the increase of export intensity;In terms of different ownership,state-owned enterprises enjoy higher subsidies Finally,according to the conclusion of the theory and the empirical analysis,the paper puts forward some suggestions on the policy reform of the foreign exchange risk,financial market and foreign trade,in order to provide some reference for the balance of domestic and external economy under the present situation.